The broad smile that emerged on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s face since the United States and Israel attacked Iran has not quite disappeared.

He could not have counted on a greater gift as this war has worked in his favour on two fronts. In the first place, it has served to distract from his own failed misadventure in Ukraine. After four years he has not forced Ukraine into submission, and the war has revealed the vulnerabilities of the Russian army.

After years of fighting and tremendous loss of life and treasure on both sides, the war shows no real sign of ending. Anything to give Putin a reprieve and to take international attention from his ill-fated decision to invade Ukraine would have been most welcomed. Hence, American-Israeli belligerence against Iran could not have been more timely for him.

But, in the second place, and in a more worrying sense, the attack on Iran has given him the justification he craved by offering yet another example that it is okay to unilaterally attack another nation without having to give an explanation for one’s action. This should be a worrying development for all of us, because if one mighty nation can invade another on any whim, then none of us is safe. It is not the first that this has happened, but when it is on as grand a scale as this, anything goes. If Putin should succeed in Ukraine, and arguably he has already lost, at the very least the high moral ground, then what is to stop him shifting his belligerence to his neighbours?

The justification that Putin has received is no different from that which the Chinese has received with respect to Taiwan. But unlike US President Donald Trump and Putin, Xi Jinping is a different person when it comes to strategy and making important calculations regarding war. Those who think he will use the opportunity to invade Taiwan as Putin would have done if he had not already invaded Ukraine do not understand the mind of the Chinese leader as a strategic thinker.

And please do not send me any e-mails accusing me of defending a totalitarian leader. I am utterly against any notion that any one person or group of people should hold dictatorial power over a whole nation and any opposing voice must be met with suppression and death. This is the reason I have never supported the communist regime in Cuba.

Part of the reason for the problems that the people of Cuba are now undergoing, sanctions aside, is due in no small way to the suppression of the voices of the people in their determination to decide their own destiny. The communist ruling elite likes to speak loudly of freedom, liberation, and self-determination, but what they like to do themselves they deny to others who oppose them.

But back to President Jinping. As a strategic thinker, he knows it would be unwise to try to seize Taiwan, and it certainly would not be in the best interest of China to do so at this time. He is more plugged into stabilising the Chinese economy, which has been experiencing some hiccups, especially born out of the uncertainty of the Trump tariffs. He will not take sides in the Iran conflict and would prefer to be the elder statesman who can leverage his influence if he should be called upon to do so. He sleeps and dreams the stabilisation of the Chinese economy and worries that if the war goes on inordinately, it may begin to have a negative impact at home. How to sucessfully govern a country that has the largest middle class in the world, almost twice the size of the US population, must be something that keeps him up at nights.

He was not a party to the start of the war in Iran, and, like other European nations that have indicated they will not get involved, even to send military support to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, he seems presently wedded to the idea of remaining on the sidelines. But if you see him grinning, it must be at the extent to which America is spending billions of dollars on a war that should have been over in a week, but which shows no signs of abating. Consolidation of Chinese influence around the world is his watchword.

Meanwhile, the war continues in the Middle East with its colossal loss of life and property. If we did not know before, it should now be abundantly clear that war is a messy thing. If it should be engaged, it should be a matter of last resort. If you engage it, whether on a personal, national, or international level, it should not be fought on feelings or instincts alone, but on carefully crafted strategies that can reasonably guarantee the results you are looking for.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest, social commentator, and author of the books Finding Peace in the Midst of Life’s Storms; Your Self-esteem Guide to a Better Life; and Beyond Petulance: Republican Politics and the Future of America. He also hosts a podcast — Mango Tree Dialogues — on his YouTube channel. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or stead6655@aol.com.

Raulston Nembhard