The global economy is in the midst of very great uncertainty. Countries like Jamaica have already started to suffer severe impacts of these troubling times — and stand to maybe suffer the most. Strategic preparation, including the leveraging of especially local human and natural resources, is among our best friends in these very doubtful times. Jamaica must either sink or swim.

Jamaicans know that when gasoline prices increase, everything else increases. Jamaica does not produce a single drop of commercial crude oil — not yet. I am being optimistic, given the local search for oil and related products, which is at a very advanced stage.

Today marks 30 days since Israel and the United States struck Iran. I have heard several different timelines from international experts on when and how the war might end. What is not in doubt is that international air travel and related transport costs have already increased appreciably.

That has significant implications for our tourism sector, which is our largest foreign exchange earner. Fertiliser prices are rising fast. This has very big implications for global agriculture and food prices. Gas prices locally have increased for four-straight weeks. The massive and very negative implications of those increases on food, electricity, and essentially everything bought and sold are obvious.

What is obvious, too, is that ordinary Jamaicans will ‘feel it the most’, as we say locally. Our shock absorbers are used and old. Understand this: If the war ends tomorrow, gas prices and related costs — locally and internationally — which have increased markedly, will not instantly return to normal, meaning near-predictable rises and falls.

Experts in the global commodities business, and specifically in the petroleum products arena, say it will take from 2 years to as long as 5 years, and in some cases longer, for repairs and rebuilding of the oil infrastructures that have been damaged and/or destroyed to be put back into full operational mode.

There is precedent for this delayed return to normality. Recall, for example, that in the 1973 war involving Israel and Arab states, America gave assistance to Israel. The Arab states did not like that, and so the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed a 150-day embargo. Ten years of stagflation globally resulted.

ROUGH WATERS

Some experts say that if the present war involving Israel, America, and Iran continues to climb up the ‘escalation trap’ the economic, social, and related consequences globally could be worse than those in 1973.

In the midst of global uncertainty it bears repeating that there is absolutely no uncertainty in the experience and minds of ordinary Jamaicans especially regarding the direct connections between increases in oil prices and the immediate and ripple effects on all aspects of our lives. The Dr Andrew Holness-led Administration needs to have no delusions or illusions about that cold reality. Rapid, unbearable increases in gas prices and related costs have been like powder kegs locally.

The Gleaner of April 28, 2009, with a story entitled ‘Gas riot in retrospect’, delivered these details: “There was widespread rioting in April 1999 when Prime Minister P J Patterson announced that a 31 per cent gas tax would be imposed: From Morant Point to Negril Point, tyres went up in flames and businesses were forced to close as Jamaicans joined in the infamous 1999 gas riot. Public transportation and the education system were virtually crippled, while the police force, the military, and the fire brigade worked overtime to contain the protests. Many commuters were forced to walk long distances as bus drivers and taxi operators abandoned their routes and parked their vehicles.

“The security forces, which were largely outnumbered by demonstrators, struggled to contain the situation and sometimes stood quietly by while the protesters had their way. During the mayhem, at least three members of the security forces were shot and injured and another four injured otherwise during demonstrations. A pregnant woman was also shot and killed. Several private and public vehicles were set on fire and some firemen were stoned while trying to put out the blaze. The demonstrations led to more than 100 arrests in the Corporate Area, St Elizabeth, St Thomas, Clarendon, St Catherine, and St James.”

“Cho, Higgins, that will never happen again,” some, comfortably ensconced in their secluded zones, will exclaim. Listen, human nature remains constant, and supply and demand remain kings.”

These are facts.

GREAT MISSED OPPORTUNITY

I watched the 2026/2027 Budget Debate presentation by Prime Minister Holness. As I see it, Dr Holness squandered a golden opportunity for the Government to kick off a national campaign to, among other things, educate the public on energy-saving measures amid the developing global fuel crisis. I believe Government ministries and related agencies must lead this national effort. Amid the escalating global fuel crisis stemming from disruptions in the Middle East (especially the conflict affecting oil supplies), several Asian countries have launched national energy-saving campaigns. Here are some examples:

• Thailand: The Government ordered civil servants to work from home, set air-conditioning units to 26°C – 27°C, banned non-essential travel, and encouraged employees to use stairs instead of elevators;

• Philippines: Implemented a mandatory four-day workweek for government offices, reduced electricity consumption by 10 per cent – 20 per cent, and banned non-essential travel;

• Bangladesh: Advanced Eid holidays, closed schools early, and implemented planned blackouts to reduce electricity consumption;

• Sri Lanka: Declared Wednesdays as public holidays for schools and government offices to conserve fuel;

• Vietnam: Urged businesses to adopt remote work, asked citizens to limit private vehicle use, and is managing potential fuel shortages;

• Myanmar: Introduced alternate-day driving to restrict fuel usage;

• China: Halted new fuel export contracts to ensure domestic supply and instructed local industries to reduce consumption.

I anticipate some are going to retort, “But, Higgins, Jamaica does not get her crude oil from the Middle East. We get it from Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil.”

Those who cite this important fact hopefully have noticed that gas prices at local pumps have increased noticeably over the last four weeks. It is not a matter of if, but when the full negative trickle-down impact will start affecting most pockets and dinner tables.

Listen: Unrest from skyrocketing gas prices doesn’t wear green, orange, or any other political party colour.

While Prime Minister Michael Manley held the wheel in 1979, increases in gasoline prices, among other things, triggered widespread protests. In 1985, Prime Minister Edward Seaga imposed a 21 per cent increase in fuel prices as part of a larger austerity programme. Protests broke out in most parts of the country. Seven people were killed in violent clashes, and millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure resulted.

And, as mentioned, in 1999 we had the mother of all gas protests. It was a direct response to a proposal by the Patterson Administration to implement a 30 per cent fuel tax. I remember those protests like it was yesterday. The country came to a virtual standstill. Footage of tyres burning in the streets, buildings set ablaze, and members of the security forces having their hands full trying to restrain protesters was splashed all over the globe. Nine Jamaicans were killed in the disturbances. The Government was forced to roll back the proposed increases.

I hate to sound Cassandra-esque. Still, ostrich-ism is not the solution, and that is why we must learn from history.

STRATEGIC PREPARATION

Yes, we have since changed the formula for how gasoline price increases are managed. That shift has not nullified the fact that people recognise when the increases become burdensome. I have done some research, cursory, though. I found that prior preparation and sensitisation of the population regarding the massive fuel increases in 1979, 1985, and 1999 were glaringly absent. Measures to stem price gouging were absent as well. It is now almost 26 years since the last islandwide shutdown.

I hope the Government (including the Opposition) has learned some lessons from it. Additionally, the Government must not assume that because we have more media today, this means more people are better informed. Studies have shown that, amid information overload and misinformation, many people are less knowledgeable or more misinformed on key issues than in the past. In the midst of these realities, combined with our history of costly protests over gasoline price increases, Prime Minister Holness should have used part of his budget presentation to launch a national energy-saving campaign, I believe.

THE GREAT UNKNOWN

Some will doubtless respond, “Cho, Higgins, you are overthinking. This war in the Middle East will soon end.”

I hope they are correct. In the meantime, the war is going on, and the longer it continues the greater the setbacks to the national resurgence agenda which Prime Minister Holness skilfully articulated in his recent budget speech.

Professor Frank Luntz, who has taught at the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard University, and currently teaches at the US Military Academy at West Point, is one of the most respected voices internationally in matters that centre on politics. In a recent post on his X account he noted the following: “The US wants Iran to make six commitments: 1) no missile programme for 5 years; 2) zero uranium enrichment; 3) decommissioning of nuclear reactors; 4) arms control treaties with regional countries; 5) no financing for regional proxies; 6) strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of centrifuges.”

Iran, formerly Persia, has been in wars continually for most of the last 2,000 years. They will not bow easily. Iranians are battle-hardened.

HIGH POINTS

Anyway, Jamaica must do what she has to do to achieve the crucial resurgence objectives adroitly outlined by Dr Holness. For Jamaica, it is do-or-die.

As I see it, these were the peaks of the prime minister’s 2026/7 budget debate presentation.

* The Government will be eliminating additional tuition fees at the HEART/NSTA Trust in an effort to broaden access to skills training. Beginning in fiscal year 2026/27, fees for all programmes up to Level 5 will be removed. This initiative will help hundreds of young people throughout the country.

* Ground will be broken this year for the construction of two science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics (STEAM) schools. This long-awaited programme will help dozens of young people to get a better start in life. This will massively improve their life chances. Hopefully graduates will help Jamaica’s advance along the productivity continuum.

* On the matter of productivity, I was happy to hear the prime minister say that further increases in public sector wages must be aligned with productivity and gross domestic product (GDP). I have been calling for this improvement for a long time.

In my The Agenda piece of June 29, 2025, for example, I said: “The long-standing preoccupation with majoring in minors in the public sector, for example, needs to shift to one of facilitation, production, and measurement of especially tangible results. Relatedly, how much longer are we going to wait to engage the trade unions on the thorny subject of harmonised salary increases?”

* The US$80-million Westlands Project that is currently underway will put Jamaica on course to having the largest concentration of near-port logistics lands anywhere in the Caribbean. This will be major advance for this country.

* The transformational plans announced for Portland, St Thomas, and some other parishes will be game-changers when complete. I am not happy that St Mary has been snubbed, again. It’s time for our fair share. It is time for St Mary to rise like the rest. It’s only fair!

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Garfield Higgins

Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness making his contribution to the 2026/27 Budget Debate in the House. (Photo: Garfield Robinson)

Oil prices have shown signs of increases.

This March 1993 photograph shows Prime Minister P J Patterson in discussion with Opposition Leader Edward Seaga. (Photo: Michael Gordon)

Tyres are set alight beside this old minibus, which was used to block a road during the gas riot.