HAITI’S economy shrank for a seventh-straight year in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, even after the country met all quantitative targets under its staff-monitored programme through December 2025.

The assessment followed an IMF mission to review Haiti’s performance under the third phase of the programme, which ended in April.

The IMF said all end-December targets were met, including those tied to reserves, the fiscal balance, revenue, limits on central bank financing, and social spending. Net international reserves rose to US$1.76 billion at the end of 2025, while the monetary financing target was also met despite tighter fiscal conditions.

“All programme targets were met at end-December 2025. Reserve accumulation has been strong,” the IMF said at the end of its review mission published Monday.

The results have not shown up in growth. Output has now declined for seven consecutive years.

Inflation, while easing, remained high at 22.1 per cent year on year after peaking at about 32 per cent at the end of fiscal 2025, keeping pressure on households already facing rising costs.

“Haiti is facing an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment shaped by persistent insecurity and recurrent domestic and external shocks,” the IMF said.

The IMF said progress on reforms has been slower than planned, held back by limited capacity, political uncertainty, and ongoing insecurity. Those same factors continue to weigh on business activity and investment.

New pressures are also building.

“The oil price shock stemming from the war in the Middle East has emerged as a major headwind,” the IMF said, noting that higher fuel costs are raising the import bill and adding to subsidy pressures on the budget, though it did not quantify the impact.

The Fund also pointed to the effects of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, which disrupted economic activity and deepened humanitarian needs.

Even so, external buffers have held. Gross international reserves are projected to reach about US$3.4 billion by the end of 2026 — more than seven months of import cover — supported in part by steady remittance inflows.

“Despite a deteriorating external environment, international reserve buffers remain adequate,” the IMF said, pointing to continued inflows and a relatively stable exchange rate.

Reserves are rising and key fiscal targets are being met, but economic activity remains weak. Lending is slowing, and revenue collection continues to be affected by disruptions linked to insecurity and administrative challenges.

Higher oil prices are expected to increase subsidy costs while limited fiscal space restricts how much support the Government can provide without risking stability.

“Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside,” the IMF said, warning that further deterioration in security conditions, sustained high oil prices, or weaker remittance inflows could deepen economic and fiscal pressures.

Haiti has requested an extension of the programme to June 2027, which the IMF said would help maintain policy continuity and support ongoing reforms.