While combatants unleash weapons of death in every type, size, and level of destructive power; while dozens of people are killed or injured daily; and while billions of dollars in damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure send shock waves through the global economy, ordinary people, especially in countries like Jamaica, are already feeling — or will soon feel — the most awful consequences.

Some experts in the commodities and petroleum sectors argue that the present energy crisis is worse than the 1973 oil crisis. In support of that position, they point out, for example, that this is the first time the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked during an energy crisis. Those experts also say that the level of damage and destruction being inflicted on energy infrastructure is unprecedented.

As an illustration, they note that during the Iran-Iraq War, both sides actively avoided damaging each other’s energy infrastructure because they needed the revenue from those facilities to fund the war effort. In many ways the global economy has been tossed into uncharted waters. Jamaica is directly in the firing line. Our response cannot ever be, “Woe is me!”

The longer the war in the Middle East goes on the worse the consequences will be. At the time of writing, the price of crude oil had shot up to US$115 per barrel. Jamaica’s 2026/27 budget was constructed with an oil price assumption of approximately US$60 per barrel.

Six months ago Jamaica suffered a near-catastrophic setback caused by one of the most powerful hurricanes in recorded history. A global energy crisis so soon on the heels of Hurricane Melissa could not have come at a worse time. It’s a mighty blow to our solar plexus.

In recent times, some among us have spoken glibly about Jamaica going on a spending spree with resources that were saved up for the lean years. Recall that in Genesis 41, Joseph interprets Pharaoh’s dream and predicts seven years of severe famine — the “lean years” — following seven years of plenty. As prime minister, Joseph warehouses grain during the years of abundance, saving Egypt and the surrounding lands, including his own family, from starvation when the famine strikes. In doing so he confirms his wisdom and God’s providence. Discernment is key.

Like Joseph, the Dr Andrew Holness-led Administration did not swallow the profligacy bait. During the time of plenty there were those who loudly mocked and berated Joseph for filling the storehouses to the brim. No matter how much Joseph explained it, the “nyam everything now, dead fi hungry later” crowd could not understand why the storehouses needed to be filled to capacity.

I previously said in this space, but it bears repeating, that human nature remains constant, and that supply and demand remain kings. Recall that no matter how many times Prime Minister Holness and members of his Administration explained why Jamaica could not regress into the dungeon of profligacy, some among us — like the Prodigal Son in the Bible — remonstrated and demanded what they considered their due of Jamaica’s savings.

Up to the time of writing, our net international reserves (NIR) stood at US$6.8 billion. The NIR is a major part of Jamaica’s protection that some wanted to ‘nyam off’. Those of us with Jamaica’s best interest deeply riveted in our hearts did not kowtow to the splurgers. Today we have been vindicated.

THE GREAT BEAST

In 1970s Jamaica the country’s NIR were depleted to the point that our rainy day fund fell into deficit. Jamaica must never go back down that disastrous road. Today we have a sizeable piggybank, with actual money in it to cushion us if necessary as a buffer against the unexpected. With gross reserves equal to 36 weeks of imports — compared with the global benchmark of 12 weeks — Jamaicans can breathe easier than during the first Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) oil shock of the 1970s, when the People’s National Party (PNP) Administration, under Prime Minister Michael Manley, held the keys to Jamaica House.

Previously in this space I provided the receipts of the horrible mismanagement of that period and how Jamaica was made systematically poorer, weaker, and less respected. Consequently, we were relegated to the ignominious category of the ‘Poor Man of the Caribbean’. The great beast of profligacy must not ensnare Jamaica again. For those who love to conflate things, I am not saying that today’s respectable size of our rainy day fund is an impenetrable shield against the present oil crisis. The good news is we have options. This is a fact!

DURATION MATTERS

When the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 hit Jamaica we had great difficulty “stopping even a stale bread cart”, as rural folks put it. The country was almost broke. Given the health of Jamaica’s NIR today we can at least ‘see our way’; meaning, we can comfortably meet our obligations.

Notwithstanding this crucial reality, there is another reality that we have to accept simultaneously: It was seven weeks ago that Israel and the United States struck Iran. Duration is the key. The longer this war goes on, the greater the economic and related setbacks for Jamaica. Why? Expensive oil for days frightens the global crude markets. But expensive oil for weeks and months reshapes inflation; that is, the cost of living locally.

Already, especially ordinary Jamaicans are feeling the biting consequences of the energy crisis. Last week I went for a haircut. My barber told me I would have to pay $300 more. Why? His electricity bill had increased. My bill noticeably increased as well. Gas prices have risen for six-straight weeks, and related costs, like some foods, are climbing.

If oil reaches US$150 or US$200 and stays there for months, as some experts are predicting, the conditions for a global recession will become clear. I am hoping and praying that we don’t reach that rickety bridge. It would set Jamaica back for years.

“Higgins, you are being alarmist,” some may say.

Really?! Two Sundays ago I noted here that some experts have said that, even if the war were to end tomorrow, it would take upwards of two to five years — and possibly even longer — to repair and replace the damaged and destroyed oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

Consider this: Three weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that prolonged increases in energy prices could boost inflation and lower global growth. BlackRock’s Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said oil prices could reach US$150 a barrel and cause a global recession if Iran remains a threat even after the war ends (
Reuters, March 25, 2026).

BlackRock manages nearly $15 trillion in assets. On March 11, 2026 the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its largest-ever coordinated release of emergency oil stocks, making 400 million barrels available to stabilise global markets amid supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. These informed actions and pronouncements point to the fact that global movers and shakers do not see the conflict in the Middle East as a routine snap or snarl. The actions of the IMF, Fink, and the IEA are unambiguous. They are telling us that a massive supply shock is happening. They are also saying this energy crisis is already having — and may have even more — crippling global consequences. This is not fantasy.

Here is something else that is not fantasy. It bears repeating: If the war continues for months, global supplies will dwindle to the point that, no matter how large our NIR, there will be limited crude oil available to buy — or the prices will be so high that countries like Jamaica simply will not be able to afford it. Supply and demand are kings. If the balance between the two falls out of sync, inflation will rise, energy industries will atrophy, tourism will falter, our recovery will nosedive, local politics will become much meaner, and folks will be tossed under the economic guillotine. That’s a recession.

WEATHERING THE STORM

Two Sundays ago in my The Agenda column I said that I believe Prime Minister Holness squandered a golden opportunity for the Government to kick off a national campaign. Among other things, such a campaign would educate the public on energy-saving measures amid the developing global fuel crisis. Government ministries and related agencies must lead this national effort.

Amid the escalating global fuel crisis — driven by disruptions in the Middle East — several Asian countries have already launched national energy-saving campaigns. What is Jamaica waiting for before she starts?

Again, I anticipate some will retort, “But, Higgins, Jamaica does not get her crude oil from the Middle East. We get it from Colombia and Brazil.”

For sure, gas prices at the local pumps have increased for six-straight weeks. This affects everything that is bought and sold. Everything! It is not a matter of if, but when the full negative, trickle-down impact will hit most pockets and dinner tables. Ordinary folks will feel the hardest pinch. Recession happens in the pockets of folks.

NOT ALL GLOOM

A crisis is an opportunity riding a dangerous wind (Chinese proverb). Someone said a long time ago that we must not waste a crisis. I agree. Despite the widespread picture of doom and gloom surrounding the war, there are, in fact, some real opportunities.

Some developed economies are now fast-tracking their emancipation from fossil fuels. They are ramping up investments in renewable resources — natural energy sources that replenish themselves naturally over short periods or are virtually inexhaustible, such as solar, wind, and hydropower. Some countries, like the United States, are expanding investments in what some investors are calling ‘clean and safe nuclear’. This sounds oxymoronic to me.

Some countries in Asia, especially, are resurrecting coal plants. This might sound like madness, given what numerous studies have shown about the environmental damage caused by coal pollution. Remember, though, that “Necessity is the mother of invention.” When governments are under the gun from the people because of energy shortages they have to find solutions to the immediate challenges that determine whether they stay in power or are pushed to the kerb. If the past is the best predictor of the present and future, and assuming that the leaders of the global economy have the same foresight as those of 50 years ago, then we might see another kind of epochal shift in the level of global reliance on fossil fuels. Recall that as a result of the energy crises in the 70s there was a paradigm shift in the global automobile industry.

Consider this: “The 1970s marked a monumental global shift in the automotive industry, characterised by the decline of American ‘muscle car’ dominance and the rise of Japanese, fuel-efficient compact vehicles. Triggered by the 1973 oil crisis, consumers shifted their preference from large, high-horsepower “gas-guzzlers” to smaller, more reliable, and economical cars, a period often referred to in the US as the Malaise Era.

Countries such as China have poured heavy investment into renewables over the past 20 years. The Chinese, it is said, foresaw this day coming long ago — the war-driven energy shocks.

WHAT OF JAMAICA?

Here, at home, we can begin to make energy conservation a national pastime. Our terrible driving habits, experts say, are one of the major reasons for energy wastage. We have to get it into our heads that we don’t produce a single drop of crude oil in Jamaica, and act accordingly.

Like most Jamaicans, I am optimistic that we will soon find crude in commercial quantities. And even when we do find crude (pardon my optimism) in commercial quantities, we must resist the temptation to behave like “frighten-Friday” and “never-see-come-see”. We must plan for generations.

Notwithstanding the fact that we live in a hurricane belt, Jamaica should not be importing certain foods that can be grown locally in abundance and stored here. Jamaica is spending millions on food imports needlessly. Joseph’s template — storing grain in the years of plenty for the years of scarcity — remains relevant. Let’s do what we can in our small corners.

Garfield Higgins

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Finance Minister Fayval Williams has a word with Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness before opening the 2026/27 Budget Debate in Parliament. Photo: Naphtali Junior

Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness addressing Parliament recently. (Photo: Garfield Robinson)