The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), in furthering its expectation for economic resilience across the region, has projected growth of approximately 5.7 per cent this year.

According to Isaac Solomon, vice-president of operations at the CDB, speaking at the bank’s annual news conference yesterday, the projection for this growth will be closely hinged on the continued resuscitation of tourism arrivals along with more investments in the energy sector.

Subjected to possible downside risks, the CDB’s forecast, Solomon said, could, however, be tempered by further downgrades in more advance economies which face similar threats and in recent times have had to also revise their own forecasts amid growing concerns and talks of recession.

“For 2023 we project that despite facing multiple challenges, our borrowing member countries’ (BMCs) economic performance will continue to improve over the medium term. While cautiously optimistic about a near-term outlook and recognising the uncertainties regarding the war in Ukraine, it is difficult to estimate growth with a large degree of certainty,” the vice-president stated, noting, however, that the predicted economic growth should boost government revenues, aid in improving fiscal out-turns and slowing debt.

This, while also intensifying the consolidation efforts of BMCs in 2023 as they aim to get back in line with some fiscal roles suspended during the pandemic. However, he said a slower than expected economic recovery could delay the implementation of such processes.

Last year’s growth for the region averaged 10.3 per cent, more than doubling the 4.5 per cent it recorded in 2021.

This growth, Solomon said, was largely underpinned by “increased energy production in Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago and higher international oil prices which fuelled much of the 20.6 per cent economic growth in commodity-exporting BMCs.”

“In tourism-dependent countries, increases in extra-regional airlift also resulted in a strong, though incomplete, recovery amid rising inflation that dampened domestic demand and moderated growth in key economic sectors,” he added.

The bank, after executing over 65 projects across its approximately 19 BMCs while offering consultancy and other technical support last year, however, admitted that it will have much more work to do in 2023 as it positions to go head-on with the challenges.

“Supply chain imbalances, high and persistent food and energy inflation and rising cost of living coupled with heightened concerns over food and energy security are at the forefront of the development challenges.

“The Caribbean is now at a critical juncture. The impact of protracted shocks has compounded the region’s socio-economic challenges, many have been pushed into poverty, and many long-held development gains have been eroded.

“In 2022 CDB provided much-needed assistance amid strained fiscal budgets and remain responsive to our BMCs’ demands for resources to strengthen and reposition economies for longer-term inclusive growth,” Solomon also said while calling for added focus to be placed on targeting social support, especially for those most vulnerable in the cost of living crisis.

Approving grants of over US$158.1 million and disbursing funds totalling US$292.5 in 2022, the CDB said it has made significant strides in countries across the region even as it continues to work towards strengthening social sector infrastructure in various communities. The regional institution through its many efforts was also at the forefront of the pandemic recovery fight and during this year is also promising more interventions, some of which it said were already underway following plans to increase climate resilience, trade and agriculture.

Citing a number of other social and economic challenges spanning fiscal management, the promotion of good governance, social protection, gender equality and the need for greater digital transformation, Solomon, like CDB President Dr Gene Leon, also called for urgent action on the issues, especially now when collective action is needed towards a more sustainable future.

“CDB and its BMCs take a holistic view of resilience building and development, hence our development activities are designed to be responsive in pressing socio-economic and environmental issues to create and seize opportunities for increased resilience and sustainable development and to drive success in the vital areas in 2023 and beyond. BMCs must now consider redoubling their own efforts to address the structural drivers of vulnerability including crime and poverty, as they work to build the necessary resilience to enhance economic growth prospects and grow sustainability,” Solomon concluded.