A survey conducted by the Human Resource Management Association of Jamaica (HRMAJ) in 2018 — which found that Jamaica’s working population spent conservatively 90 minutes per day in one-way in traffic, or at most three hours daily in two-way, resulting in lost productive hours — was at the centre of the Jamaica Economy Panel’s (JEP) forum in May.

The HRMAJ survey, which sampled 113 individuals including managers affiliated with the organisation, saw 93 per cent of respondents indicating an increase in employee lateness due to traffic congestion.

Productivity consultant Francis Wade concurs with the survey, stating that “up to 30-40 per cent of some commuters’ work hours are lost daily on long commutes to and from Kingston” — Jamaica’s major central business district.

The findings of causation in the survey are not dissimilar from a World Economic Forum article which noted, “Congestion is a blight on most major towns and cities, and for some it’s become a serious drain on the economy.” In fact, the author estimates that the United States of America economy saw US$87 billion in lost productivity occasioned by traffic congestion.

That study cited the locales of Boston, Chicago, and Washington DC as most affected, followed by New York and Los Angeles.

Reflecting on the Jamaican context, cofounder of JEP Dr Nadine McCloud noted, “Yet there is no silver bullet to reining in our congestion problems that stem from a plurality of factors.”

To this end, McCloud — who also heads the Department of Economics at The University of the West Indies, Mona — advocates for the development of a “workable congestion toolkit” to determine how factoring in road pricing mechanisms, an improved public transportation system that includesschool bus arrangements, staggered flexible working hours, and remote work can contribute to improving Jamaica’s productivity problem.

At the same time, other members of the JEP have sought to identify reasons for the high level of traffic congestion in Jamaica. Among them, Ian Thompson of the Economic Commission for Latin America has pointed out that traffic congestion is a sign of economic progress.

“The phenomenon of traffic congestion, which is caused mainly by relatively wealthy car drivers, lengthens journey times and, more importantly, forces up public transport fares. Owning a car is one of the fruits of human progress; using it in conditions of acute congestion or contamination is a social ill,” Thompson stated.

If Thompson’s assertion is correct then traffic congestion could increase and possibly further put a dent in productivity — how much work is done and/or the value of tasks completed — as the number of motor vehicles on Jamaica’s roads continue to increase. According to CEIC data, registered motor vehicles in the country amounted to 190,000 units in December 2015, compared to 183,500 units a year earlier, resulting in a 3.5 per cent increase.

The United Nations Children’s Fund estimates that private vehicle registrations in 2016 were approximately 395,769. At 2017 the country’s total registered motor vehicles — private and public — were approximately 791,538, with 65 per cent motor cars, 21 per cent motorcycles and 11 per cent trucks.

“While increased car ownership often indicates a prosperous society, the social and environmental costs can often be overshadowed. When these costs are not internalised consumers will tend to overuse, giving rise to the ‘common tragedies’. Road congestion is one such tragedy that society will need to manage carefully, particularly in small island developing states,” Dr Stuart Davies, senior economist at UN Jamaica and another panellist, remarked.

Panellists also proffered other contributors to congestion including the lack of an integrated transportation system plan and infrastructure, lack of adequate traffic management/inefficient traffic systems, and urban migration.

Another factor they pointed to was global warming, though it is one of the results of traffic congestion. Increased rainfall when combined with poor drainage and potholes tend to reduce traffic flow, thus creating traffic congestion and resulting in more time spent on roadways.

The JEP also made suggestions to reduce traffic congestions.

Consequent on the JEP’s research, JEP member Wendel Ivey in a companion study estimated that the weekly loss of productive hours due to traffic congestion could be around $24.3 million weekly or $14 billion on an annual basis. That calculation took into consideration a number of assumptions, namely the number of hours in the workweek, an estimation of the size of the working population, and the mean salary earned by those in the workforce.

Moreover, the study also found that mining and quarrying, and electricity and water supply were least impacted by traffic. It also point out that wholesale and retail trade, producers of government services, and financial and insurance services — employing individuals on a 9-5 basis — were most affected by the constrained flow of traffic.

The question of how reducing traffic congestion will positively impact productivity remains yet to be answered, and the Jamaica Observer will explore this conundrum.