“And in today’s weather forecast, expect sunny skies with temperatures of 28 degrees Celsius, but it’ll feel like 31.”

Have you ever watched the weather forecast and heard the reporter tell you that the temperature will be one thing, but it will “feel like” another?

As crime rates continue to fall across Jamaica, many Jamaicans still perceive the country as an unsafe place to live. This perception is not based on reality, but is influenced by various factors that create a distorted view of the actual crime situation.

The Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) reported a 22 per cent decline in major crimes in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year. Commissioner of Police Major General Antony Anderson announced that murders were down by 21 per cent; shootings, 13 per cent; rapes, 47 per cent; robberies, 32 per cent; and break-ins, 11 per cent. These significant reductions in crime rates are a testament to the hard work and dedication of the constabulary and its law enforcement partners. For the first time in recent memory, both violent and acquisitory crimes have been significantly reduced.

Despite these considerable reductions, some individuals feel that the data does not align with their lived experience. Instead of questioning the data’s credibility or dismissing it, we must examine the factors influencing how safe or unsafe people feel to understand this dissonance.

Several factors may affect the perceived safety in the same way surface level or atmospheric factors can influence the difference between actual temperature and how it feels. In the case of crime perception, some crucial factors include the media’s role, social media influence, personal experiences, and economic factors.

The media often focus on sensational and violent crimes, which fuels the impression that crime is rampant and out of control, even when official statistics show a significant decrease. The rise of social media and increased access to gruesome crime scenes have also shaped crime perceptions in Jamaica. Graphic images or videos of crime scenes circulate on social media platforms, contributing to a sense of fear and anxiety. The lack of regulation and editorial oversight on social media can also lead to the spread of false information and rumours, further distorting what becomes the public’s perception.

Personal experiences play a significant role in shaping safety perceptions. If someone has been a crime victim, or knows someone who has, he/she may feel more vulnerable and fearful, even if crime rates are declining overall. Moreover, economic factors, such as financial insecurity or economic hardship, can cause people to feel less safe because they are more vulnerable to crime or view crime as a symptom of broader social problems.

Unfortunately, some members of the editorial and commentary class in Jamaica cast doubt on crime data’s veracity only when it shows a decline. This selective scepticism undermines law enforcement efforts and creates discord among citizens who need to trust the data to make informed decisions about their safety.

Playing politics with crime data is detrimental to Jamaica. The reality is that there has been a significant decline in major and acquisitory crimes, and we should acknowledge this progress. Accepting crime data only when it suits a particular narrative does a disservice to the people of Jamaica who deserve a safe and secure society.

The response to the feeling of dissonance ought not to be to ‘throw shade’ at the data, but to help people understand the dissonance. By raising awareness of the discrepancies between crime perception and reality, and by emphasising the positive strides made in crime reduction, we can help shift public opinion towards a more accurate understanding of the current situation. This shift will enable Jamaicans to make better-informed decisions about their safety and allow law enforcement agencies to focus their resources more effectively.

Ultimately, building a safer Jamaica is a collective responsibility that requires the participation of all citizens, organisations, and institutions. We must all commit to addressing the factors that influence crime perception and work together to ensure that the reality of safety in Jamaica aligns with the perception of its people. Only then can we truly create a secure and prosperous nation for everyone.