Providing clarity on setting targets using inflation
I regret the way that my comments in the article “BOJ Inflation Policy Trashed” were published in
the Jamaica Observer of 21st July. I apologise to all concerned for the
misunderstanding that my incomplete and incorrect comments may have caused.
In order to clarify my comments on the above subject I submit the following:
1.Targeting any performance in field means that one wants to achieve the
targeted level of performance and is prepared to put in the efforts and the
resources to do so.The target should be achievable with the efforts and
available resources.One should be able to control and influence the variables which
determine the outcome .
2. Inflation in a country is the outcome of many variables including global
energy prices, global prices of food and many other commodities,level of growth,level of production and productivity, pricing power of suppliers , level of supply of various goods and services, trade barriers and tariffs, taxes and
several other factors.
3. In an import dependent economy like Jamaica, factors which influence the
inflation outcome include tourism earnings, bauxite and aluminum prices, energy
prices, food prices,level of remittances, level of tariffs and taxes,level of
competition, level of agricultural production, exchange rates of various
currencies, level of inflation in other countries particularly trading
partners,level of employment, level of incomes, global growth, natural disasters, and so on.These and
several other factors affect the level of inflation.
4. Since we do not have much control or influence on most of the variables that
affect the level of inflation and the global highly uncertain current economic
environment , we cannot accurately predict the future behaviour of these
variables.Hence it will be difficult for us to accurately
target inflation levels for future years.Perhaps one can try to do it for a
year at a time and make efforts to achieve it with some success .But I wonder
how much reliance can be placed on targets for several future years.
5. I wish that life was so simple that we could target inflation levels for
future years and achieve them!
6. This is my present understanding of the subject. I prepared to learn from
anybody who can enlighten me further and then I can change my views.