JUST over half of voting age Jamaicans would like Prime Minister P J Patterson to call the general elections early this year, but people are almost evenly divided over whether he will do that or wait until year-end before going to the polls.

Patterson, whose People’s National Party (PNP) is seeking a fourth consecutive term in office, must call the general elections by December unless he decides to utilise the three-month constitutional grace period until March next year — which he has said he won’t.

But a poll for the Observer, done during the first week of February by the Stone Organisation, found that 53 per cent of Jamaicans would prefer that Patterson call the elections earlier rather than later, against 22 per cent who want the elections nearer to the end of 2002. However, fully a quarter of the people had no position on the matter.

For this survey, Stone used a sample of 1,203 persons from 44 communities across Jamaica. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

The pollsters found a difference between what people hoped to happen and what was expected to be the case.

For example, whereas the 53 per cent said they would prefer an election early in the year, only 39 per cent believed that this would be the case, a marginal three percentage points more than the 36 per cent who expected a later poll.

Twenty-five (25 per cent) didn’t offer a view.

People who prefer an early election did so mainly out of fear that a drawn out campaign would lead to violence (17 per cent) or just the need to get rid of tension in the society (15.2 per cent).

Only 5.3 per cent wanted an early election specifically to vote the PNP out of office.

Of the group wanting a later election, the largest bloc, (6.1 per cent) hoped to give the PNP government more time to complete projects, while 5.2 per cent felt that there was need to tackle the problem of crime before heading for a vote.

Question:/B>

There has been talk on the road that government may call early elections this year, while some are still saying that elections are going to be held towards the end of this year. When do you believe elections will be held?

Answers:

Elections will be held early this year…………………………………….39%

Elections will be held end of year…………………………………………36%

Don’t know……………………………………………………………………….. 25%

Total…………………………………………………………………………………100%

Question:

Which would you prefer to see. Early elections or one towards the end of the year? Why?

Answers:

Would prefer to see early elections……………………………………….53%

Would prefer to see end of year elections……………………………..22%

Don’t know……………………………………………………………………….. 25%

Total…………………………………………………………………………………100%

Reasons for wanting early elections (multiple)

Too much potential for violence………………………………………..17.1%

We need to get rid of the building tension………………………….15.2%

It is just the best time now…………………………………………………..9.3%

The PNP must go……………………………………………………………….5.3%

Things are not right in the society………………………………………..2.8%

Don’t know………………………………………………………………………..8.3%

Reasons for wanting elections at year-end (multiple)

PNP needs all the time to finish projects………………………………6.1%

Crime problem needs settling first……………………………………….5.2%

Have to do it after this year’s tourist season…………………………3.6%

People need more time to make voting decisions………………..2.2%

Don’t know/don’t care………………………………………………………..5.9%