THREE out of every voting age Jamaicans still believe that it would be a good thing for Bruce Golding to return to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), of which he was heir-apparent until he walked out in 1995 to form the now moribund National Democratic Movement (NDM).

Golding gave up the leadership of the NDM just under a year ago, claiming that he had brought too much baggage to that party and since then has been more active as a commentator than politician.

But a survey, done for the Observer earlier this month, found that 31 per cent of people 18 and over would want him to return to the JLP, compared to 44 per cent who say that he should continue to stay away from the party of which he was a member for over quarter of a century. Twenty-five per cent did not have a view on the matter.

The poll was done by the Stone Organisation, who used a sample of 1,203 persons from 44 communities across Jamaica. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Of those who are advocating Golding’s re-entry into the JLP, 12 per cent couldn’t articulate a reason for their desire, but 19 per cent argued that he had a lot to offer and that his presence would be beneficial to the JLP.

Apparently wrapped up in the latter sentiment was the fact that Golding had been a student of JLP leader Edward Seaga, and, according to Stone, was seen as “capable of leading the party either as an immediate replacement for Seaga or to give the party viability by showing that a direct line of leadership succession was in place”.

Two years ago, when Stone last substantially questioned potential voters about a possible future for Golding in the JLP, 37 per cent supported a merger between the NDM and the JLP and 50 per cent of the people favoured Golding to lead the merged group, a more than three-to-one leader over Seaga (14 per cent).

At that time, too, Golding (32 per cent) was also a two-to-one favourite to lead the JLP over Seaga (17), even without a merger with the NDM.

In this latest survey, 44 per cent of JLP supporters were in favour of Golding re-joining their party, substantially down from the 68 per cent in the February 1999 poll. This softened ardour among Labourites for a Golding return was also reflected in the fact that 43 per cent of them said that he should stay away, compared with 24 per cent two years ago.

But Stone officials stressed yesterday that these numbers had to be considered in their proper context. “Remember that Golding has not been sending any signals that he wants to return to the JLP and that he has been relatively dormant politically since leaving the NDM’s presidency,” noted a Stone spokesperson.

Among people who support the People’s National Party, those who say Golding should return to the JLP slipped from 41 per cent in 1999 to 31 per cent his year, while those (45 per cent) who say he should stay were two percentage points down and statistically unimportant.

In Golding’s own NDM, struggling for support since he resigned the leadership, 78 per cent of supporters say that he should give the JLP a wide berth, 10 percentage points higher than two years ago.

Similarly, those who advocate his return have slipped from 31 per cent to 22 per cent.

Question:

Two years ago there was talk that ex-NDM president Bruce Golding was considering a return to the JLP. Since that time, Golding has left the leadership of the NDM. Would you like to see Bruce Golding return to the JLP? If yes, why?

Answers:

Yes, I’d like to see him return………………………………………31%

No, he should stay out…………………………………………………44%

Don’t know…………………………………………………………………25%

………………………………………………………………………………..100%

Reasons for wanting to see him return to the JLP

He has a lot to offer/He is fit to lead/It will make a difference to the party/The party will get added

support………………………………………………………………………19%

Don’t know………………………………………………………………..12%

Stone comment:

Two years ago, when there was a significant percentage of voting age persons calling for the leader of the opposition to step down, poll findings were showing that, theoretically at least, replacing Eddie Seaga with Bruce Golding would increase the JLP’s chances at the polls.

Among those who wanted to see Golding return to the party were a set who saw him as a bright and talented man with a lot to offer the party. Another view also saw him as a man who was taught ‘the ropes’ by Eddie Seaga. By virtue of that, they saw him as capable of leading the party either as an immediate replacement for Seaga or to give the party viability by showing that a direct line of leadership succession was in place.

The February 2002 Stone Poll is showing that the issue is not dead and approximately three out of every 10 voting age adults would like to see Golding return to the JLP.