After lagging behind the Opposition for the better part of a year-and-half, P J Patterson’s People’s National Party (PNP) appears to have clawed its way back into contention for a fourth consecutive term in government.

According to the findings of a poll conducted at the end of June for the Observer by the Stone Organisation, both the PNP and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are locked in an absolute dead heat in voter support:

. PNP – 27.2 per cent;

. JLP – 27.6 per cent.

“The JLP has lost momentum showing a significant slip from the position held in the April polls,” Stone said in a comment on the findings.

This is the closest the PNP has been to the JLP in voter support since the ruling party lost the lead in the November 2000 Observer/Stone poll. In that survey the PNP’s support plunged to its lowest ever, at 15 per cent, from 24 per cent the previous July and 19 per cent the previous May. By comparison, the JLP had also slipped – from 20 per cent to 17 per cent – but less rapidly than the PNP. Thereafter, the JLP went mostly in an upward swing, with some minor reversal, but none likely to be impactful of this one, given the closeness of the election, which Prime Minister P J Patterson has said he will call by year-end.

Indeed, between April, when it had a support of 30.8 per cent of voting-age Jamaicans, and the June/July survey, the JLP has slipped 3.2 percentage points, or just over the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three per cent. This reversed a strong 6.1 percentage point gain the Opposition party had made between February, when its support was (24.7 per cent), and April.

On the other hand, the PNP picked up 3.4 percentage points in voter support in the latest survey, to add to the 2.8 percentage points it made in April.

PNP officials at the publication of the April data had pointed out that the survey was done at a particularly difficult period for their party, which was reeling from the public debate over a series of scandals. Among these were the NetServ Affair, relating to the lax manner in which hundreds of millions of dollars were loaned to IT start-ups and the seeming pork-barrel approach administrators had taken to the Operation PRIDE shelter programme that led to the resignation of housing and water minister, Dr Karl Blythe.

In the latest survey the two minor parties, Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas’ United People’s Party (1.3 per cent) and the National Democratic Movement (0.4 per cent), remained essentially where they were in the previous survey.

At the same time those who said that they will not vote remained at 25 per cent, while those who have not made up their minds whether they will cast a ballot slipped from 19 per cent to 15.6 per cent, close to the margin of error.

Approximately three per cent (2.9 per cent) of the sample declined to say for which party they would vote.

The poll was conducted during the last two days of June and Stone used a sample of 2002 persons, aged 18 and over, in 40 communities in the island’s 14 parishes.

According to Stone, 80.5 per cent of the sample said they were enumerated to vote in the election which Prime Minister P J Patterson has said he will call by year-end, against 19.5 per cent who had not sought to get on the voters’ register.

Fifty-seven per cent said they intended to vote, a quarter (25 per cent) said no and 18 per cent said they did not know.

Stone said that somewhere between the 57 per cent who were clear they would cast their ballots, and 75 per cent of the electorate, would vote in the election.

The pollster conceded that the range they offered was wide, but said it was “consistent with the volatility existing now, with voters unsure of voting and, second, which party they would be voting for”.

“Research of six weeks ago indicates that a turnout of 71 per cent is likely, given that an election has not been announced,” Stone added.

Stone echoed a point that some political analysts have been making in recent months – that the next election will break the pattern of the past 25 years or so and return to the days of a close poll rather than Jamaica voting almost as a single constituency.

“With both parties in a statistical dead heat but with the JLP marginally ahead, the next elections are likely to break new ground in terms of the expected close race, not only in popular vote but also in the seat percentages,” the pollsters stressed.

Despite the JLP’s reversal, Stone noted, the Opposition could still pick up disgruntled PNP voters from the 1997 general election. This, however, would depend on the effectiveness of the JLP’s campaign, particularly its articulation of policies to deal with crime and unemployment – issues on which the government is vulnerable.

Indeed, despite the PNP’s gain in the latest survey, one finding did show that 51 per cent of the potential electorate would like to see a change of government. That, though, was 10 percentage points lower than when Stone previously asked the question in November last year.

But when Stone specifically asked people whether the PNP, which has been in office since 1989, deserved another term in government, approximately 25.2 per cent yes, two points below the percentage that indicated an intention to vote for the party.

Approximately 20 per cent of those who believe that PNP should get a fourth term said it deserved it for its overall performance in government while three per cent said it was the better of two evils and 1.5 per cent wanted it to win because they loved the PNP – likely die-hard supporters.

Question:

Are you enumerated?

Answers:

Yes……………………………………..80.5%

No……………………………………..19.5%

Question:

Do you intend to vote in the next elections?

Answers:

Yes……………………………………..57.0%

No……………………………………..25.0%

Don’t know………………………….18.0%

Question:

If an election should be held now, which party would you vote for?

Answers:

JLP……………………………………..27.6%

PNP……………………………………27.2%

UPP……………………………………..1.3%

NDM……………………………………0.4%

Don’t know………………………….15.6%

Won’t say……………………………..2.9%

Not voting…………………………..25.0%

Total 100%

Stone comment:

Based on research findings from the July 2002 Stone Poll, we estimate that the turnout in the next general elections will be anywhere between 57% and 75%.

The range is wide but it is consistent with the volatility existing now with voters unsure on voting and, second, which party they will be voting for.

Research of six weeks ago indicates that a turnout of 71 per cent is likely, given that an election date has not been announced.

Usually there is some congealing of party choice once an election date is announced. With both parties in a statistical dead heat, but with the JLP marginally ahead, the next elections are likely to break new ground in terms of the expected close race, not only in the popular vote, but also in the seat percentages.

The JLP has lost momentum, showing a significant slip from the position held in the April Stone Poll.

It is likely that the JLP will pick up more of the disgruntled 1997 voters once an election date is announced. This depends largely on the effectiveness of the campaign, especially where it refers to sore points such as unemployment and crime.

Question:

Do you believe the PNP deserves another term in Government? If yes, why? If no, why?

Answers:

Yes……………………………………..25.2%

No……………………………………….7.6%

Don’t Know…………………………27.2%

Reasons for saying PNP deserves another term

Good performance overall…….19.8%

It is the better of two evils………2.9%

I love the PNP……………………….1.5%

Has better long-term plans………0.6%

No special reason………………….0.4%

Reasons for saying PNP does not deserve another term

Country needs the change……..17.1%

The PNP’s non performance……9.9%

The country mash up………………7.9%

Too many hardships around…….7.2%

Too much corruption……………..1.8%

Crime rate too high………………..1.2%

No special reason…………………..2.6%

APRIL 2002

Question:

If an election is called now, which party would you vote for?

Answers:

JLP……………………………………..30.8%

PNP……………………………………23.8%

UPP……………………………………..1.2%

NDM……………………………………0.2%

Don’t know…………………………19.0%

Not voting…………………………..25.0%

100%

Stone comment:

The JLP has increased its lead from the last poll and is ahead on all the other indicators. As an election campaign is announced it is expected that both parties will gain in strength.

The PNP has some work to do in convincing its 1997 voters to support the party once again, while the JLP needs to either hold the strength it has relative to the PNP or increase it.

While there is some indication that the people are making up their minds as they sense an impending election, the main parties need to present their policies to the people and be plain talking in demonstrating how these plans can improve the lot of the voter.