Poll result boost JLP
THE People’s National Party (PNP) yesterday put on a brave face on yesterday’s Observer/Stone poll numbers showing that it had slipped sharply in public support ahead of Wednesday’s general elections.
Despite its fall-off in yesterday’s standing, PNP officials preferred to highlight the fact that all opinion polls continued to show it in the lead, while the party’s president, P J Patterson, in apparent anticipation of the latest numbers, had Saturday night told supporters not to panic or become confused by negative information.
But for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the results, which showed the PNP with a 1.2 percentage point lead in voter support, vindicated its argument of a new momentum that will take it to victory when the ballots are counted.
“The poll published on Sunday tells us we are neck and neck, a statistical dead heat and that there is still room for improvement,” said JLP leader, Edward Seaga. “That improvement will come tonight (last night) at our mass meeting in Montego Bay. That meeting will be big, just like the one at Half-Way-Tree and it will have the same effect as Half-Way-Tree.”
JLP supporters were now “motivated and in high spirits”, Seaga said.
Labour Party spokespersons had argued that the October 6 public meeting – which marked the return of Bruce Golding to a major JLP platform – was the largest by a political party there ever and the rebirth of its campaign.
But last night the PNP’s campaign director, Paul Robertson insisted that despite the new number, showing a six percentage point fall in PNP support, there was no panic in their camp.
“As far as I know, there are three polls – the one in the Observer, the one in the Gleaner and the one commissioned by us (PNP). All three indicate the PNP ahead by various percentages with the one in the Observer indicating the lowest margin,” Robertson said. “As long as we do what we are suppose to do on election day itself, which is mobilising our supporters to vote, we will be fine.”
“I have absolutely no quarrels with polls and will never have,” he added.
The poll reported yesterday which was conducted between October 8 and 10 – using a sample of 1,000 persons, aged 18 and over, in 33 communities across Jamaica – showed the PNP with a support of 34.5 per cent, against 33.3 per cent for the JLP.
This survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, pointed to a 6.1 percentage point decline in PNP support in a little over a week, while the JLP gained 1.7 points.
It was a sharp reversal of what had been a trend of PNP advance in support, without any clear explanation other than, perhaps, the effect of Golding in re-energising a JLP campaign that had gone flat.
Golding, who was seen as Seaga’s heir-apparent, walked out of the JLP seven years ago, over differences on issues of governance. He formed the National Democratic Movement (NDM), which promoted constitutional change. His return to the JLP was on the basis of a memorandum of understanding in which the JLP pledged to embrace some of his principles and to consider others.
Speaking at a public meeting in Lucea, Hanover, on Saturday, Patterson did not make any specific reference to the Observer/Stone poll or any other opinion survey.
But he warned supporters to look out for surprising and confusing things deliberately designed to demotivate PNP adherents in the final days before the elections.
“There is no need to panic, there is no need to be despondent, there is no need to be confused or distracted,” Patterson said.
Rather, he said, irrespective of what any survey numbers may show, action should be taken based on the message conveyed rather than attacking the messenger.
“I have never been a man to quarrel with the messenger,” he declared. “I look at what the message conveys and I take appropriate action,” he said.
Patterson also urged supporters to be vigilant and watch for activities, which are meant to intimidate them and destabilise their communities.
“Within the last few days, watch out for the gunmen,” he said. “If you see strange people coming into your community, call the police, let them check them out.”