More Jamaicans say PNP deserves to lose local poll
THE ruling People’s National Party (PNP) holds a dubious 11 percentage point advantage over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) when it comes to which of the parties voters say deserves to lose this Thursday’s local government elections.
But when it comes to which of the parties they believe deserves victory, while more voters say the JLP, the gap narrows to approximately four percentage points, or just outside the three per cent margin of error for a poll recently conducted for the Observer by the Stone Organisation.
In the survey conducted between June 7 and 8, Stone probed voting age Jamaicans on their views about functioning of the local government system and people’s attitude towards the two major parties, the JLP and the PNP, ahead of the elections.
According to the pollsters, 41.9 per cent of the voters say that the PNP — which has controlled the national and local governments for more than a dozen years — deserves to lose the election. That is 11.2 percentage points more than those who hold the same view of the JLP.
But on the other hand, the 33 per cent who felt that the JLP deserved to win were only 3.9 percentage points ahead of those who hope for a PNP victory — suggesting the likelihood of a tight contest on Thursday.
A significant fact in the finds, which is likely to work against the JLP, Stone pointed out, is that half of the people who say that the PNP deserves to lose indicated that they will not vote in the election. Forty-six per cent of those who believe the JLP deserves to lose fall in the will-not-vote category.
Significantly, too, 86 per cent of PNP supporters believed their party deserves to the win, five points more than the 81 per cent of the JLP voters who hold that position about their party.
When Stone questioned people on the matters around which the election is being fought, it emerged that the issues of greatest concern were more broadly national than local.
The state of the economy, for instance, was uppermost in people’s minds with approximately 19 per cent specifically identifying it as the most important issue. The same percentage identified the need for job creation, again an economic issue, as top of their agenda.
The state of crime (9.4 per cent) and the quality of the infrastructure (four per cent) were the other major areas of concern.
Asked to identify areas of national success under the PNP, the improvement in the road network (29.5 per cent) was considered to be the major achievement, followed by health care delivery (18 per cent) and improvement in the education system (7.3 per cent).
But the administration’s inability to defeat the country’s crime problem was considered the PNP government’s biggest single failure (21.4 per cent). However, when concerns about matters such as unemployment (10.4 per cent), poverty (6.5 per cent) and macro-economic stability are considered as a whole, economic management emerged as the biggest failure of the Government in the eyes of voters.
At the party level, the economic weaknesses that plague the Government also translated in the eyes of voters as the major weakness of the PNP. It was also criticised for distancing itself from the poor (10 per cent), corruption (six per cent) and weak leadership (five per cent).
The JLP was criticised for disunity, a lack of aggression, its perceived failure to place poor people’s issues on the agenda, and its continued leadership by Edward Seaga.
Question:
Some people have been saying the PNP deserves to lose the local government elections because of its poor performance in handling the economy since it was elected in October last year. Do you agree or disagree with this?
Answers:
Agree, the PNP deserves to lose 41.9%
Disagree, it deserves to win 29.1%
Don’t know 29.0%
100%
Question:
Some people have been saying that the JLP deserves to lose the local government elections because it has not presented any attractive policies to the voters. Do you agree or disagree with this?
Agree, the JLP deserves to lose 30.7%
Disagree, it deserves to win 33.0%
Don’t know 36.3%
100%
Stone comment:
While 30.7% of our sample share the view that the JLP deserves to lose the next elections, 41.9% (37% more) believe the PNP deserves to lose.
Looked at in another way, 29.1% believe the PNP deserves to win to 33.0% who believe the JLP deserves to win.
A most important point to consider is that these judgments are being made by the entire sample, non-voters and likely voters.
Fifty per cent of those who believe the PNP deserves to lose have indicated that they will not be voting.
Forty-six per cent of those who believe the JLP deserves to lose have indicated that they will not be voting.
Six per cent of PNP voters believe their party deserves to lose, while nine per cent of JLP voters believe their party deserves to lose.
Eighty-six per cent of PNP voters believe their party deserves to win, while 81% of JLP voters believe their party deserves to win.
Question:
If you were to look around you and point out nationally what areas are successes and what are the failures, what would the main ones be?
Successes (multiple)
Roads 29.5%
Health care and delivery 18.1%
Infotech and communications 9.1%
Nothing 7.6%
Education 7.3%
The free market model 1.4%
Crime reduction 0.5%
Don’t know 57.1%
Failures
Crime control 21.4%
Economic stability 17.9%
Employment 10.4%
Fighting poverty 6.5%
State of roadways 2.8%
General indiscipline 1.5%
Everything 1.3%
Don’t know 47.0%
Stone comment:
The PNP’s concentration on road building and its focus on the high-profile Highway 2000 road network has impacted on our respondents with 29.5% seeing ‘roads’ as a national success.
18.1% view health care and delivery as a success, while 9.1% see information technology and the expansion of telephone communication as successes.
Crime control, economic stability, employment and fighting poverty are key areas which our respondents have pointed out as failures.
Question:
As we head to the upcoming elections, what weaknesses, if any, do you see in the PNP and JLP?
PNP’s weaknesses (multiple)
Ability to fix the economy 14.1%
Has distanced itself from the poor 9.6%
Job creation 8.7%
Corruption 6.0%
Its weak leader 4.9%
Crime management 4.1%
Poor maintenance of roads 0.4%
No weaknesses 2.8%
Don’t know 51.7%
JLP’s weaknesses (multiple)
Its disunity 11.2%
Its not aggressive enough 7.7%
It doesn’t think of poor people’s issues 6.9%
Seaga 6.8%
No weaknesses 5.1%
Poor internal management 1.0%
Everything 0.9%
Don’t know 61.3%
Stone comment:
The ruling PNP’s most significant perceived weakness is its failure to get the economy on an even keel. 14.1% have expressed this view.
Other economic and social issues such as dealing with poverty and job creation are seen as other weaknesses that have dogged the PNP.
11.2% cite disunity as a feature of JLP weakness.
7.7% are of the view that the JLP remains too silent to be an effective Opposition, while 6.9% see it as not properly representing the issues of the poor.
6.8% express the view that Seaga is the main weakness of the JLP.
Question:
What do you believe are the main issues around which the upcoming elections will be fought?
The economy 18.8%
Jobs 18.7%
The crime rate 9.4%
The general infrastructure 3.9%
Education 2.1%
Corruption 2.0%
Don’t know 56.8%
Stone comment:
Only a very small 3.9% of our respondents are of the view that the issues which are being fought for in the upcoming elections are local government ones.
The economy and job creation are the main ones, according to the findings of the present poll.
9.4% believe that the rate of violent crime will be an issue in the elections.
While these matters may not arise on the platform of the candidates, it is the view of our respondents that voters will be making judgments using these factors as main criteria.