PNP president P J Patterson has again told his party that he will not lead it into the next general election, but raised new speculation about the timing of his retirement in the camps of contenders with his remark that their race would be more akin to a 800 metres rather than a sprint.

But while the handlers of those who have declared their intention to seek Patterson’s job scrambled to interpret the prime minister’s cryptic remark, people who have worked with the PNP leader seemed sure yesterday that the People’s National Party will have a new leader by next September.

“Mr Patterson will turn 70 next April so he will likely speak in next year’s budget debate as his last,” said a source, who has worked with Patterson and understands his decision-making style.

“He will probably announce his resignation date a few months later and the election is likely to be by the party’s annual conference in early September,” the source said.

Patterson has been at the helm of the PNP since 1992 and has led it in three of its four consecutive election victories, the last in October 2002.

But he has long made clear that he will not lead the party in the next general election, constitutionally due towards the end of 2007.

In recent months, at least six contenders have emerged for the party’s top job, and the previous low-key campaigning has become increasingly vigorous since the party’s July unveiling of a code of conduct for the polls.

However, at a meeting of the PNP’s 300-member National Executive Council (NEC) in Montego Bay on Sunday, Patterson warned the contenders about over-extending themselves too early, according to accounts of the private session by Observer sources.

“Don’t done all you money now,” Patterson said, using Jamaican patois.

“The race, while not being a marathon, is not a 400 metres,” the prime minister is reported to have told the delegates. “It is more like an 800 metres race.”

“Those who have ears to hear, let them hear,” he added.

Patterson’s remark sent various leadership campaign strategists scampering to dissect the remark for its hidden meaning, including whether there was a message that he would stay longer than most people anticipated.

One suggestion was that while Patterson reiterated that he would not stay for the general election, he might be signalling that he would still be the party’s leader for the local government poll due in mid 2006 – nine months later than current projections.

But former Patterson aides suggested otherwise.

“Mr Patterson has stated that he wants time to devote to personal pursuits before it’s too late,” said one source.

“Seventy seems like a nice round age at which to depart, and going next year would allow the new leader time to consolidate and still head into a general election while still relatively fresh.”