MIAMI (AP) – Hurricane forecaster William Gray said yesterday he expects 20 named tropical storms in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, revising his earlier prediction of 15.

The Colorado State University professor’s forecast is the second to be revised upward this week. On Tuesday, the National Weather Service predicted a total of 18 to 21 tropical storms by the end of November.

“Based on research data obtained through July, we foresee one of the most active hurricane seasons on record,” Gray said.

There has already been an unprecedented number of storms – with eight storms, including two hurricanes – in the 2005 hurricane season.

The two hurricanes – Dennis and Emily – dumped heavy rains on Jamaica, leaving damage worth millions of dollars.

Gray’s prediction calls for 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph).

That’s more than twice the long-term average of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. Tropical storms get names once they reach 39 mph (63 kph). A storm becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph (119 kph).

Ocean warming, low tropical sea pressure, increased rainfall in West Africa and the lack of El Nino conditions in the Pacific were among the factors causing more storms to form.

The forecasting team also predicted a 77 per cent chance of an intense hurricane hitting the US coastline, compared to an average 52 percent.

That includes a 58 per cent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula; a 44 per cent chance for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas; and an above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November. Gray will issue additional forecast revisions September 2 and October 3.