JAMAICA is now about 15 murders shy of a new all-time homicide record. But, as the fatalities continue to climb, deputy police commissioner Mark Shields told the Sunday Observer Friday that he is in the process of establishing a new system for murder investigations, specifically those committed in the capital, to be implemented next year.

“I am actually reviewing and will be changing the way we investigate homicides in Kingston and St Andrew,” said Shields.

“It will be a task force approach.”

A flare-up by gangs last week in escalating battles over turf, in August Town, Jones Town and Arnett Gardens, and the resulting death trail, has all but guaranteed that by month end, the island would have surpassed last year’s toll of killings.

The announced hot spot policing initiative in volatile communities has not yet made an impact in those areas.

But, Shields says the volatility was almost expected.

“That sort of outbreak at the moment is inevitable, because we can provide as much policing as (resources allow), but if groups of individuals in gangs are determined to kill each other and risk the lives of innocent people, we cannot be there all the time in every area,” Shields said Friday.

“That is the reason why I say there is no complacency on my part. We have huge problems to overcome.”

One of the constabulary’s weaknesses, has long been its poor record of solving crimes.

Its only semblance of a status report in this regard is for homicides, under the heading of ‘cleared up’ killings. The official statistics suggest that the police are increasingly inept at bringing felons to justice.

According to data acquired by the Sunday Observer from the Police Statistics Department, comparing statistics to November 6 over three years, 2003 to 2005, the current cleared up rate of 41 per cent was five points worse than last year’s 46 per cent, and significantly lower than the 58 per cent cleared up rate in 2003.

And as the success rate in solving murders fall, the killings trend up.

The official murder count has ballooned to 1,415 killings as of November 6, a 14 per cent climb over the comparative 2004 period.

Then there were 1,246 murders, but by the end of December 2004, the figure had settled at the current record of 1,471.

In a count of deaths detailed in official daily reports issued by the police information arm, the Constabulary Communication Network (CCN), beyond this November 6, at least 42 more murder victims have been added to the tally, taking the total to 1,457 homicides up to Friday.

The death count in Jamaica now averages 139 people per month, 77 per cent of which were by the gun, followed by knife attacks at 15 per cent, machetes 3 per cent, and an assortment of other weapons.

The high point this year was in February when only 119 died, while the bloodiest and lowest point was in May with 170 killings, a record high for any one month.

At the current average, the murder toll will hit 1,668 deaths by the end of December.

And as the fatalities pile up, so does the death count for women, 161, children, 19, and police officers, 12 – all at new highs.

But the police force itself, in a highly charged crime beat, has stepped up its aggression against alleged perpetrators of violence, and in a return to pre-2002 levels, has notched up 141 kills out of 323 shooting confrontations.

Beyond, November 6, another seven fatal shootings by the police were referred to the Bureau of Special Investigation, headed by Granville Gause.

Phillips reported to parliament last week that since 1999, the BSI has investigated more than 2,100 police shooting incidents.

In those six years, there have been four convictions from the 525 cases that made it to court.

In the meantime, fatal shootings by the police were up 52 per cent over the 93 they killed between January 1 and November 6, 2004.

Police killings are not added to the tally of murders until, or unless, the Director of Public Prosecutions designates them as unlawful and rules for charges to be laid, an officer at the police statistics department told the Sunday Observer.

Shields, in the meantime, is insisting that the ‘hot spot’ crime containment plan, which he initiated in March on assuming his new job with the Jamaica Constabulary Force, is working.

Prime Minister PJ Patterson and his national security minister Dr Peter Phillips, re-announced the initiative last month, promising to flood violent communities with police men and women to dissuade attacks, after outcries for action that followed the particularly brutal death by fire of Sasha-Kaye Brown and the murder of her family.

Some 500 cops are to be taken off desk duty and put on streets, as part of that plan, and another 1,500 recruits are being sought to boost the force’s established strength to 10,000, to be done over 18 months.

Shields started out in March with daily meetings with division chiefs in briefing and strategy sessions, for the first three months, to pinpoint where problems might erupt.

“Eight divisions attended regularly and at the moment we meet three times a week – Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays,” said the DCP.

“In some of the hot spots, we have been able to reduce homicides and shooting significantly.”

Shields was not specific about the zones that have quieted, and the overall statistics do not bear out his comment.

The data shows that shootings have nudged up from 1,410 to 1,413. Of the 19 police divisions islandwide, three have recorded declining homicides – St Catherine South, down from 122 to 114; Manchester, down from 28 to 19, and St Ann, from 30 to 24.

But, of the three, only St Catherine South is a targeted hot spot zone.

“The thing is, I never wish to appear complacent because we still have huge crime problems. However, we are putting mechanisms in place at the moment that will no doubt improve things over the next year,” he predicts.

The force has recently acquired new technology that it will use to analyse crime patterns and craft appropriate policing response.

“We have purchased, quite recently, a GIS mapping system, which will further assist in locating or identifying and analysing the locations of crimes in terms of when and where they are being committed,” said the DCP.

“This will assist the hot spots process of deploying officers at the right time and in the right place.”

For now, the hot spot initiative is largely used in the metro region, which incorporates eight policing divisions in the corporate area and St Catherine.

“Further work will be done towards the end of the year to improve the analysis of crime in these areas, and I hope to adopt the practice across the whole of Jamaica next year,” said Shields.

But, Area One, which incorporates the policing divisions of Hanover, Trelawny, Westmoreland and St James, has sprinted ahead.

“ACP (Trinity) Gardener and his team have already adopted a similar approach,” said Shields.

The police, in two high points can point to:

. an increase in gun recoveries of 553, half of them pistols, to November 6 compared to the 505 finds in 2004; and

. a decrease in major crimes overall – from 7,588 reported offences in seven categories of crime, to 7,154 – most noticeably sex crimes, down more than 20 per cent, and break ins, down 16 per cent.

As crimes fall, so too do arrests.

A total of 13,244 arraignments are on the books, compared to 14,197 to November 6, 2004.

Contributions from staff reporter Petre Williams