MONTEGO BAY, St James – Sugar expert Karl James last week attempted to introduce an optimistic tone in a demotivated industry, insisting that, despite the poor factory output, Jamaica would meet its first shipment deadline to get the raw crystals to Europe, its main market.

But cane farmers believe it will take a marathon effort and will be “touch and go,” according to spokesman Allan Rickards, who says the factories are already behind schedule.

With two weeks to go, the factories had produced just over a third of the order to be filled on January 29.

“These are critical moments,” said Rickards, current chair of the All Island Jamaica Cane Farmers’ Association (AIJFCA), and who was once manager of a government-run factory in St Thomas.

Jamaica Cane Products Sales (JCPS), the sugar industry’s export marketing arm, has a month-end deadline to ship 21,000 tonnes of sugar, valued at US$13 million, to London, as part of the country’s sugar export arrangement with the European Union.

But since the start of the season in early December, two government owned factories – Long Pond and Frome, the country’s largest estate – have not been producing at capacity.

According to James, general manager of JCPS, the two plants, which are run by the Sugar Company of Jamaica, have been plagued by a shortage in the delivery of canes from contracted farmers, as well as supplies of inferior quality canes, which yield low tonne cane-tonne sugar (TCTS) ratios.

Additionally, he said, there is a shortage of cane cutters to harvest the estate-planted canes.

“These factors have caused a reduction in the quantity and quality of canes that the factories get and so sugar production is lagging behind,” said James in a Sunday Observer interview.

Notwithstanding the current realities and last year’s new low in sugar output in decades, James said he was sure the factories would have sufficiently ramped up on output to meet his shipment date in the two weeks to his deadline.

“I am very confident that we will make the first shipment because we have already made up to about 7,500 tonnes of sugar,” he said, adding that another two government-run factories commenced operations over the last two weeks, and that another three would start grinding canes in a matter of days.

Last crop, the island failed to meet its projected sugar target of 185,000 tonnes and was unable to fulfill its trade obligations to overseas markets, due to a fall-off in production.

“Last year, there were problems in filling the quota,” James said, citing the very late start of production at some factories, the poor performance of machinery at others, and adverse weather conditions, for the country’s less than stellar sugar production.

During that season, the industry produced just over 124,000 tonnes of the sweetener from the milling of 1.4 million tonnes of canes in what sugar officials said was the lowest amount produced in 60 years.

Rickards said Thursday that shipments depended heavily on Frome, which grinds an average 4,000 tonnes of canes daily, but its levels of production have been falling below average since the December start of the season.

Jamaica, this year, hopes to earn US$78 million from projected exports of 150,000 tonnes of sugar, the bulk of which is to be shipped to London and Portugal.

Last year, earnings were close to US$69 million from export sales of 113,000 tonnes of the product.

James said that this year, the sugar industry is projecting an output of 177,000 tonnes of the sweetener from the milling of 1.9 million tonnes of canes, yielding a TCTS ratio of about 10.5, versus last year’s 11.2.

The TCTS ratio is one measure of industry efficiency, which tracks the volume of cane it takes to produce a tonne of sugar. The lower the ratio, the greater the manufacturing.

cummingsm@jamaicaobserver.com