THE Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) yesterday painted a bleak picture of what would happen if Jamaica were hit by a pandemic from the dreaded avian influenza virus, saying the island’s already burdened public hospitals would not be able to cope.

Dr Ernest Pate, PAHO’s representative to the region, told a seminar in Kingston yesterday that the 3,800 manned beds in hospitals islandwide would be inadequate as even the mildest form of a pandemic would result in about 6,500 hospitalisations and about 1,200 deaths.

The seminar, held at Terra Nova Hotel, was hosted by the Jamaican Society for Agricultural Sciences, in collaboration with Caribbean Broilers and the Bureau of Standards Jamaica.

According to Dr Pate, with a significant percentage of these persons expected to have respiratory failure requiring life and ventilator support, the problem could worsen as there were only 27 intensive care unit (ICU) beds in Jamaica, only 19 of which were staffed with trained personnel to man them.

“The ICU capacity is where you have a serious problem,” he said, even as he pointed out that Jamaica was not alone in this regard.

He said in a pandemic, 68 ICU beds would be required in the first week, 175 in the second week and 437 by the third week. “Our ICU capacity is 2,700 per cent greater than we have and this is where the risk comes in,” he said.

He pointed out that the 28 functioning ventilator systems islandwide was far from adequate. “The World Health Organisation (WHO) has been training individuals throughout the region to look at these gaps and that is where we have gotten our figures from,” said Dr Pate.

He made it clear that while there was an influenza problem being faced by several countries, with the potential to become a pandemic, it was not yet so.

However, he said a bird flu pandemic hitting the island could not be ruled out entirely, as the disease continues to spread globally, causing countries like Jamaica to impose a ban on poultry and poultry products from affected regions, as part of its preventative measures.

He said with increased technology, it has become easier to track the virus and detect the changes, thus allowing for better preparedness.

The WHO, in figures released yesterday, said the human death toll from the H5N1 bird flu strain had increased to 122, from 216 cases, with the death of six Indonesians earlier this month and an Egyptian yesterday.

But even as Jamaica prepares in the event the virus is transmitted here, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) representative Dunstan Campbell has given the green light that all poultry originating from non-infected locations like Jamaica are safe for consumption.

– browni@jamaicaobserver.com