DESIGNATING 2010 a watershed year can be intended as a pun in that some of our resources need to be directed to protect one of our most valuable assets: water. At the current prices of bottled water, it is a more expensive commodity than gasoline and in some parts of the world there is no chance of finding water. In the Middle East particularly, it is clear that in the future they may have more oil than potable water. Fortunately for us, human beings do not run on oil, and water is still essential for life. So, if we protect our resources of potable water we may yet be able to enter into a barter trade agreement of water for oil. That is one positive thought.

A second watershed area currently seems to be peaceful protests. No government in Jamaica can afford to vilify a citizen’s right to protest peacefully. To do so would make a mockery of the support and admiration we have given to Martin Luther King Jr, Gandhi, and Nelson Mandela. It would be foolish to think that the repression of peaceful protests in Jamaica could do anything else but lead to violent clashes. The succeeding governments of this country are far too scared of the resulting turmoil which would ensue, and eventually lead towards a full revolt. (Please note that the law does require that a permit must be applied for three days prior to the event. Non-compliance in the distant past has led to the familiar role of the justice of the peace “reading the Riot Act”.)

Equal rights is an integral part of our genetic make-up, as depicted by Nanny of the Maroons, Paul Bogle and Sam Sharpe. Similarly, we pay homage to the non-violent approaches as exemplified by George William-Gordon and Marcus Garvey. Therefore, I conclude that open dialogue with the people on the way forward may be a more politically intelligent move than sharing secret meetings with the IMF.

Our current situation, if described in the Jamaican proverbial language, could be,”any weh yuh tun, macka juk yuh”. In our outlook for 2010, we need to recognise that no single person has the directions to the exit passage, and that cooperation will be necessary in order to escape our current circumstances. We should be at least informed, however, of who is making their way to the exit, and that there is in fact “macka out deh”. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. This discussion needed to have taken place in 2008, but it is not too late.

The discussion and rediscussion of taxation will not gain any sympathy from Jamaicans, whether they are poor or rich. Our strong DNA previously alluded to makes us all part of a nation with a strong abhorrence for anything related to taxes, unless those taxes impact everyone equally. In each of the various categories of taxpayers, some very peculiar reactions will emerge. In the case of the PAYE person, a flat tax will always be seen as more acceptable. Notwithstanding the seemingly intellectual interpretations by some talk-show hosts that the person who does not yet earn $5 million hopes to attain that level very soon.

When I started to work in 1971, there was a progressive PAYE tax system which we all hated. It led to a plethora of tax avoidance mechanisms which included some ridiculous allowances negotiated by creative trade unionists. Those stupid allowances were abolished, and everyone breathed a sigh of relief, and the tax rate was unified at 33 1/3 per cent and later to the current 25 per cent. Largely due to the Government’s inability to defend differential wage scales, all of these allowances have now crept back into the system, as we try to differentiate between the real value of the services of different sectors of the civil service. So we have re-embraced allowances for clothing, classrooms, late shifts, transportation and a plethora of others. As previously experienced, this has crept from the civil service, the BOJ, and into the private sector, since we became interested in equality for all.

We then start to talk about extra taxes on big companies. In keeping with the definition of being greater than US$500 million of annual turnover, we have very few big companies in Jamaica. These companies are already paying their contributions through statutory deductions, funding pensions, collecting GCT, and are subject to annual audits as they would fall under the purview of the rules of the Stock Exchange. My suggestion is very simple: take out the money on allowances and put it on basic salary and allow employees to gain greater value in their pension funds, which in turn are reinvested.

Fooling around in an arbitrary manner with corporate taxes will never be seen as a progressive mechanism for attracting capital investments. Individuals have been encouraged to invest in equity capital from as far back as what was referred to in the democratic socialist agenda as “worker participation”. What has happened in the intervening period is that “workers” have become shareholders and can now spread their risk outside of the companies in which they are personally employed. In addition, managers and trustees of pension funds have also invested in the stock market, and to attempt to change the rules mid-stream will not be conducive to value creation, or in keeping with trustees’ obligations.

This leaves us with two options: stimulate growth or cut wasteful government spending. They are not mutually exclusive or collectively exhaustive. Some attributes of each can be achieved through a stimulus package aimed at creating employment and/or encouraging new entrepreneurial investment. Over the years, high interest rates on government paper with a very low perception of risk have, for most persons with cash, been like a government-guaranteed pyramid scheme. Like all Pyramid or Ponzi schemes, this has to come to an end and it seems that 2010 will be the year. Paper profits without a commensurate increase in real production lead to a disastrous outcome.

Jamaica needs to put forward a plan to the IMF which shows a feasible way out over a period of time. It must be our plan, and not that of the IMF. We are the ones who need to be decisive, and in so doing, recognise that there is no path which can show a complete turnaround prior to the next elections. If this government is hoping for a second term, then it will have to be based on making honest and responsible choices for the future. No measures will be popular, but at least they should be properly thought out and communicated.

Within the Caribbean, two prime ministers have sacrificed their political popularity and have done the right things to set their countries on a proper footing. They were PM Chambers in Trinidad & Tobago and PM Sandiford in Barbados. History remembers them as men of courage and integrity, and not simply “Mr Feel-Good”. Prime Minister Golding is faced with those choices. The choice is very easy. No direction will be without pain and potential political fall-out. If that is so, then the challenge is simply to do the right thing.

For the rest of us who cannot predict what choices will be made next year, then we need to set our own personal objectives, and to plan accordingly and not await any definitive choice by government. Since many of these are within our own ability, we need to start thinking about it even as we enter the festive season. The following are suggestions:

If you are a farmer, plant more.

If you are unemployed, start seeking a job immediately.

If you work in a government department, start thinking about whether or not you would wish to take it over if it were to be divested.

If you are employed, start thinking of how best to invest your savings in real production.

Join forces with other family members to create something new.

If you are retired, think about a part-time job and mentor young people.

If you have time to volunteer, do so in areas that will engender future growth through education and guidance.

If you are a musician, seek some work overseas.

Finally, if you are a Jamaican, please realise that party allegiance cannot be at the top of your list as a survival tool. In our current predicament, 2010 will show that PNP “macka” and JLP “macka” juk equally hard. We need to resolve that 2010 will be a year for us to bring some focus to our own lives and, of necessity, each of us needs to think about becoming more self-reliant. We have so many opportunities open to us as individuals, and yet we fail to capitalise on them.

If we look at where and on what we have spent our money over the festive season, we will have a really good list of what our priorities are. I am guessing, but I think that real necessities, family, friendship and community, have taken a preference to the bling at all levels. So whether your bling was going to be a luxury multimillion-dollar car, or simply a few new outfits to wear to a dance, we have a good opportunity to think about whether these are the really important things in our lives. My New Year’s prayer for Jamaica is that our leaders, and all Jamaicans, will have the moral fortitude to do what is right. To paraphrase HIM Haile Selassie, and as sung by Bob Marley, 2010 needs to be the year of the “triumph of good over evil”.

I wish us all good health, peace and prosperity for the New Year.