The recent massive 9.0 earthquake in Japan was survivable, as the country is the most prepared in the world for such an occurrence.

Howver what they were not prepared for was the massive tsunami that followed and the emerging nuclear disaster. The tsunami has resulted in thousands of deaths, destruction of countless homes and the destruction of tens of thousands of cars. It was really sad to see the constant images of cars been swept away by the raging seawater.

Following this disaster, and pending meltdown of nuclear plants, Japan is now seriously short on electrical power, which will take several months, if not years to replace.

After all, you don’t just call up your supplier and order a few nuclear power plants; this is compounded by disruption in transport and shutdown of manufacturing plants.

Already Toyota, Honda and Nissan, the big three Japanese auto manufacturers have announced plant shutdowns.

Most Japanese auto-makers operate just-in-time inventory systems where parts are delivered to the manufacturer just at the time they are needed for production. With disruptions in transport and production at parts suppliers, this spells disaster for car production.

Car production relies on parts supplied from several suppliers and the absence of just one small part may mean a shutdown of production. The shutdown of parts suppliers is likely to have an impact on car production worldwide especially Japanese car plants in North America.

Nissan, Japan’s second largest automaker has suspended production at four plants. Honda expects to lose production of 16,600 cars, trucks and 2,000 motor cycles. Toyota expects to lose a minimum of 40,000 vehicles, the disaster could not come at a worse time for Toyota the world’s largest automaker which has been having quality and recall issues recently.

In fact, just days before the disaster Toyota announced plans to boost worldwide sales to 10 million units in a new ‘Global Vision’.

In addition to the production shutdown, thousands of cars were damaged including 1,300 Infiniti luxury cars swamped by the tsunami at a storage depot by the port of Hitachi.

Nissan said that at least another 1,000 vehicles were damaged at the port of Miyagió, one of the cities most badly damaged by the disaster.

What does all this mean for the local auto industry? This is likely to have serious consequences for the local auto industry — new and used. New cars typically are produced to order and the shutdown of plants may lead to delays in production and shipment of ordered units resulting in temporary shortages locally. Furthermore with the large numbers of cars damaged there will be increased demand for cars in Japan.

Local used-car dealers are likely to have even more problems sourcing cars for the Jamaican market. Over the past two years since the start of the world economic crisis, used car dealers have been experiencing serious problems getting three year old cars at reasonable prices.

Prices have been rising due to the revaluation of the Japanese Yen and the fact that the Japanese, as are many car owners around the world, have been keeping their cars longer than before. This disaster is likely to exacerbate this situation, with several thousands of cars damaged and the reduction in production by automakers. There is going to be a serious short-term shortage of used cars, and a resulting hike in prices. Already the auctions in Japan are showing far fewer cars available for sale, since the disaster struck.

On Wednesday March 18 the Japanese yen hit a new high at 77 to the US Dollar, the highest since World War II on Market speculation that overseas insurers would be repatriating lots of funds to Japan to pay claims.

Overall this Japanese triple disaster is going to have a negative impact on the Jamaican auto industry, especially used cars. This, however, is likely to be short term, and things should be back to normal as soon as the production lines are back up to full speed in the coming weeks and months.

Andrew Jackson is CEO of Jetcon Corporation a used car dealer and past president of the Jamaica Used Car Dealers Association (JUCDA). The views expressed do not reflect those of the JUCDA. Visit our facebook page “www.facebook.com/jetconcars”