SCIENTISTS have warned that with increased levels of rainfall expected at wider intervals in the Caribbean, Jamaicans and others in the region should expect more floods and longer periods of drought in the coming years.

“The Caribbean is projected to be drier as we go forward in the future. Though it is projected to be drier, there is an interesting line of demarcation that falls somewhere about Jamaica and above, depending on the season, where in the north it is projected to have more intense rainfall events, even as you we get drier,” revealed Dr Michael Taylor, head of the Climate Studies Group at the University of the West Indies, Mona.

He was speaking at the Jamaica Conference Centre on World Meteorology Day, celebrated on March 23 under the theme ‘Flooding: Present and Future Threat’.

The physicist was quick to add that “dry” does not mean there will not be any rainfall, only that rainfall would occur at wider intervals, albeit in greater quantities. And the result, he said, will be the projected increase in drought conditions, floods and possibly landslides.

He said Jamaicans needed, therefore, to prepare themselves.

“Historically, we are moving towards a greater variability in rainfall patterns. It tells you that we need to account more for floods and planning. The impact of floods goes beyond people being flooded out; it affects all spheres of life… If we have more floods, more fields are going to be washed out, so our crops will be gone. We will have less yield, so less agricultural produce,” Taylor noted, adding that the economic fallout in that sector would be great.

The Met Office, which hosted the March 23 seminar, has itself called for increased emphasis to be placed on improving the island’s preparedness for floods.

“Flooding is a disaster that has been responsible for more deaths in the past of all natural disasters,” noted Evan Thompson, head of the office’s Weather Branch.

The point was underscored by Kareen Gourzong, acting head of the National Meteorological Centre, who noted that last year alone, thanks to Tropical Storm Nicole, sections of the island had experienced more than three times the normal level of rainfall.

“Based on our rainfall mean during Tropical Storm Nicole, the rainfall exceeded the average required rainfall to 350 per cent. Any amount over 100 per cent is still off. So when we are talking about 200 per cent over the 30-year mean; that really tells us something,” she said, noting that they had examined data collected between 1971 and 2000 to come to their conclusions.

“From our data collected, the western section of the island, Westmoreland in particular, experienced rainfall over 900 millimetres over the five-day period (of Nicole). 900 millimetres of rain over a five-day period is a lot of rainfall. For the central parts of the island, looking at Manchester and Clarendon, we also had some rainfall over 900 millimetres. Also, in the hilly sections of St Andrew, we had some rainfall over 900 millimetres,” Gourzong added.