Happy Christmas Jamaica, better days are ahead!
NO one can successfully accuse us in this space of being pessimists. On the contrary, we are firm believers that the best is yet to come for this country and for all Jamaicans.
Yet we temper our optimism with realism and encourage our readers to expect the best while preparing for the worst. For that is the way of nation-building.
This Christmas, our optimism is based on at least three important indicators that better days are ahead and that we may now be seeing the light at the end of the long dark tunnel of the international economic recession which has battered us since 2007.
First, the precipitous drop in the price of oil, nearly 50 per cent since June this year, portends hope that Jamaica’s energy bill will fall and provide badly needed breathing space for our economy. Indications are that the price will remain low for well into next year, going by the word of Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer, which has said it would not be cutting production from its current 9.6 million barrels a day, because it does not want to lose market share to shale oil producers such as Russia, Brazil and the United States.
The immediate issue for Jamaica is that the benefit of falling oil prices needs to be shared with the general populace through lower prices generally. The conventional wisdom is that as soon as oil prices rise, it is passed onto consumers with higher prices spiralling through nearly every item of goods and services. The argument, therefore, that the price reductions have to be allowed to work their way slowly through the system cannot be generally acceptable.
Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell has a golden opportunity to redeem his image by ensuring that the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) passes on the lower prices commensurate with the fall in the international prices, as well as keeping a vigilant eye out to see that the benefits are passed on through the economy. We are especially interested in seeing who is right — the PCJ or the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica in its claim that PCJ is being tardy in lowering prices.
Second, the sizzling five per cent jump in the growth of the US economy during the third quarter of the financial year — the biggest boost in over a decade — is cause for celebration. Importantly, that growth follows previous month growth of 4.6 per cent, a strong suggestion that economic performance is consistent and holding. We know that our economy is tied by the navel to the US economy, our largest market, and we have suffered together through the recession. We should expect the spin-offs to impact our economy.
Third, our own economy, though still stubbornly sluggish, has turned in the direction of growth, albeit under great pressure from the International Monetary Fund. One good sign is the fact that the amount of money in circulation is slightly ahead of last year’s in real terms. Up to yesterday, according to the central bank, money in circulation was expected to be $78 billion, which is ahead of year-to-date inflation. That means Jamaicans have a little more to spend this year.
We are also ending the year with excellent news that the respected Forbes magazine has ranked Jamaica best in the Caribbean and third in the Latin American region as a country in which to do business. Add this to the fact that major crimes are down.
Have a happy and peaceful Christmas, Jamaica!