Ultra long-haul flights to increase tourism
Jamaica may be approaching its maximum for tourist arrivals based on the island’s current infrastructure. The restriction is influenced by the fact that the two major international airports cannot support ultra long-haul flights — more than 12 hours airborne.
Currently 70 million tourists annually leave the US, the leading outbound market in the world, and it is Jamaica’s good fortune to be geographically close to this supply which gives seven million to our region.
Another 60 million annually leave China spending about US$165 billion. China is poised to become the largest source of tourists. On that side of the world, India is another booming outbound tourism market (currently 15 million annually) but is predicted to achieve 50 million by 2020. Many countries are opening tourism offices in India to capitalise on this wave.
In both of these markets Brand Jamaica is already well known. Since the 2008 Beijing Olympics virtually every person in China knows Usain Bolt from Jamaica — certainly one of the most recognisable faces worldwide.
In India, the largest cricket market on the planet, Jamaican Chris Gayle is a household word! (Soccer is the most popular sport with cricket second. Track and field is thought to be the most popular sport in an Olympic year.)
In terms of our market icons, Bob Marley must also be mentioned.
The point is that it should not be too difficult to sell Jamaica to a small percentage of the eastern world’s largest outbound tourism markets.
Tourism is big business worldwide. France (population 65 million) has 85 million visitors annually contributing US$67 billion. Thailand (population 70 million) on the other side of the world, has 30 million visitors annually contributing US$60 billion and is predicting 100 million by 2032!
In our region, Dominican Republic (population 10 million) is the leader with five million tourists contributing US$6 billion while Cuba (population 11 million) and Jamaica (population three million) have three million tourists each, both earning US$2.7 billion annually. (Figures above are approximate.)
The potential to grow Jamaica’s tourism sector may be dependent on connecting to the distant half of the world.
In the post-9/11 era security, immigration and long layover times are major deterrents to travel. From China or India to Jamaica currently would require at least a stop of four or more hours. Why not non-stop flights of 16-18 hours from these markets to Jamaica? This may be a long flight but, in the modern world, there are literally hundreds of flights of 15 hours or more daily. These flights have Wi-Fi, many movies, comfortable seats and plenty to eat.
Long flights are Doha-New Zealand 9,032 miles; Dubai-New Zealand 8,824 miles (17 hours); Dallas-Sydney 8,578 miles (17 hours.).
Emirates Airlines plans a Dubai-Panama flight in 2017 of 8,588 miles (17 hours). Singapore Airlines is looking at a 9,500 mile (19 hours) flight to New Jersey in 2018. Beijing to Jamaica is 8,400 miles travelling over the Pacific side. Jamaica from New Delhi is 8,830 miles and from Mumbai 9,176 over Europe and the Atlantic.
Alternatively visitors from that side of the world could travel via Dubai which is geared for long-haul traffic and is 8,077 miles (less than 16 hours) from Jamaica These flights are within the range capability of the Boeing 777 200LR and Airbus 380-800 carrying about 300 and 500 passengers respectively.
Theoretically this equipment could land in Jamaica but could not do the return leg because, at gross (full fuel and passengers), these aircraft would require 10,000 feet of runway to get airborne and Norman Manley, with the longest runway in Jamaica is, 8,911 feet.
The conclusion is that if Jamaica is to get into long-haul tourism, there must be an airport with a runway at least 13,100 feet. It is noteworthy that the longest runways in the region are Cuba (13,123 feet), Puerto Rico (11,702 feet) Curacao (11,188 feet), Bahamas (11.017 feet), Dom Rep (11,002 feet), Barbados (11,000 feet), Trinidad & Tobago (10,500 feet), and Haiti (9,974 feet).
Montego Bay can be extended to 10,000 ft over land eastwards enabling non-stop flights from Russia and Eastern Europe.
A major factor affecting runway extension is that along the airport approach path and to the sides there is a maximum height of obstacle allowed. At both Sangster and Manley a 4,500 feet addition would be in the sea and therefore costly.
The Airbus 380 requires wider runways and greater separation from the taxiway (to prevent wing-tip collision if two aircraft are operating simultaneously). New ground-handling facilities would also be necessary for this equipment.
In-depth feasibility studies would be required to determine the economic viability and technical possibility of modifying an existing airport compared with building a new facility. The cost to Jamaica for airport downtime would be an important element of any study.
The studies should include an option for the location of a new airport. Vernam Field in Clarendon would be the likely alternative for consideration. This was an airfield with good approaches and, with minor land acquisition, could become an ultra long-haul airport. A 10-mile highway could link this new airport to the Caymanas to Drax Hall Highway at Angels intersection making travel time to New Kingston 45 minutes, to Ocho Rios 60 minutes and, to Montego Bay, less than two hours.
Railway connection to the Kingston Transhipment Port would provide a strategic linkage for freight logistics. The abundant space would facilitate major aircraft maintenance. The airport would be a catalyst for township development and new industries.
A project of this magnitude may only be possible through foreign ownership or partnership, but the benefits from tourism alone would likely be worth the investment.
Robert Evans is an engineer.