Deputy Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Colin Bullock, reckons that Jamaica could be moving away from its “twilight of uncertainty and unpredictable fluctuations”.

His reasoning was based on economic growth of roughly 0.9 per cent over the January to March quarter led by improvements in agriculture, manufacturing, electricity and water supply and the hotels and restaurants industries. Moreover, there is an anticipated growth trajectory for the next quarter.

“The estimated out-turn for January to March 2016 and the positive expectation for April to June 2016, following four quarters of positive growth, suggests that Jamaica may well be emerging from its twilight of uncertainty,” Bullock stated during the Institution’s quarterly press briefing on Wednesday.

“It is worthy of note that the goods-producing industry has been demonstrating more buoyancy than services and that manufacture, often assumed to be unable to compete, is emerging as the leading sector,” he continued.

Surveys by the institution suggest that there is anticipated strengthening of most industries’ performance relative to comparative quarter of 2015 in the range of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent for next quarter.

The growth, Bullock says, will be supported by agriculture which continues to recover from drought conditions, an expansion in output from irrigation infrastructure as well as increased usage of the Agro Parks.

Additionally, the PIOJ notes positive expectations for electricity and water supply based on higher demand and improved rainfall, port development, BPO industry and the construction industry led by an anticipated increase in housing starts facilitated by the National Housing Trust (NHT).

“It has long been recognised that growth needs to be stronger and in this regard, we read the message from maturing industries, for example sugar and bauxite-alumina. As we provide essential support, there is an imperative to discover and facilitate emerging and new avenues of growth including agriculture.

“In this context a strong and creative private sector is essential to the process of discovery of Jamaica’s productive potential,” Bullock said.

He added that while the country pursues the projects listed above in a thrust to realise its upside potential for stronger growth, it is imperative to arrest the downside risks which have undermined the realisation of the country’s potential.

“As we take comfort in the progress made in diversifying energy sources and reducing the cost of power, our confrontation issues relating to irrigation, flooding and sea level rise, remain as work in progress. Enhanced educational outcomes and labour market reform are essential in building human capital and enhancing productivity,” he said.

Over the January to March quarter, the goods-producing industry recorded growth for agriculture up two per cent; manufacture up 1.1 per cent and construction up 0.4 per cent. Mining and quarrying, however, experienced a decline of one per cent. For services, all industries registered increases with the exception of producers of government services, down 0.2 per cent. The strongest growth was recorded for electricity and water supply, up 5.4 per cent, and hotels and restaurants up 2.7 per cent, due primarily to increase in stopover arrivals.