Reigning Horse of the Year Nipster makes his seasonal debut tomorrow when he takes on rivals in the Chairman’s Trophy at 7½ furlongs (1,500m).

Below is the analysis of the entrants and their chances of winning this three-year-old and upwards Graded Stakes/Open Allowance contest.

1. SUPERLUMINAL: (9 b h by Natural Selection – A Thousand Hills) – Moving up Superluminal simply cannot manage these and is seen as a filler.

2. TOONA CILIATA: (5 ch c by Soul Warrior – Red Gold) – Proved too strong for rivals in the recent Eileen Cliggott Memorial Trophy over 6 ½ furlongs (1,300m). Toona Ciliata should enjoy this extended trip even more and is given every chance of making it two wins in a row. Toona Ciliata faces now stablemate Nipster, whom he lost to two starts back in the Ian Levy Cup on December 26 but on better terms. Toona Ciliata carried 57.0 kgs (126 lb) that day while Nipster had 53.0 kgs (117 lb). Tomorrow Toona Ciliata has 55.0 kgs (121 lb) and Nipster 57.0 kgs, thereby giving Toona Ciliata the handicap advantage. Toona Ciliata can either go in front or come from behind and sprint away from rivals. It doesn’t matter which he chooses, Toona Ciliata is going to be hard to beat.

3. ROY ROGERS: (5 gr g by Distorted – Soca Party) – Roy Rogers was a winner on March 7 going a mile. That win by Roger Rogers was at the Overnight Allowance level and now stepping up to the top level, his chances of winning are dim.

4. FATHER PATRICK: (5 b g by Nuclear Wayne – Late Appeal) – Although Father Patrick continues to show his growing talent over this distance and against this tough bunch, he is going to be left behind. Plus, the choice of Natalie Berger in the saddle does not inspire confidence.

5. NIPSTER: (4 b g by Casual Trick – Nippit) – Races for the first time under the care of champion trainer Anthony Nunes. Nipster last raced on December 26 of last year when defeating then stablemate Sentient in the inaugural running of the Ian Levy Cup over 8 ½ furlongs (1,700m) at this level. Nipster also had the top-rated Toona Ciliata behind him in third place. Nipster faces both Toona Ciliata and Sentient here but on different terms; the distance is shorter by a furlong and the weights are completely different. That day, Nipster carried 53.0 kgs but now moves up 4 kgs (9 lb) to 57.0 kgs, giving weight to Toona Ciliata down from 57.0 kgs to 55.0 kgs and Sentient down from 54.0 kgs to 53.5 kgs (118 lb). A winning run is not beyond Nipster, but getting by Toona Ciliata on the occasion could prove difficult.

6. CRIMSON: (5 b g by Nuclear Wayne – Sarah Barracuda) – Came running to nip Superluminal in the Alexander Hamilton Trophy. Now Crimson competes against the best around and may need time to get comfortable with this higher grouping.

7. DUKE: (5 gr h by Casual Trick – Lady McBeth) – A winner on March 6 who is not expected to find it easy against these even with the trip to his liking.

8. SENTIENT: (5 ch h by Strikewhileitshot – Lady Geetadeo) – Finished fourth behind Toona Ciliata recently at 6 ½ furlongs. Tomorrow Sentient is pitted against Toona Ciliata and Nipster, and it will take a run beyond the ordinary to carry home this trophy.