BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says drier than normal seasonal rainfall and fewer than normal wet days and wet spells are expected across most of the region for the three months ending in July.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, released on Friday, CariCOF said the ongoing weather pattern during the period May to July could delay the onset of the rain season.

“However, wetter than normal seasonal rainfall and an increase in wet spells are expected along The Guianas, Cayman Islands, and The Bahamas, where marginal flash flood and soil erosion potential may develop.”

CariCOF said that extreme wet spells are not expected to feature more than usual for the region, noting that “in general, temperatures are expected to be close to normal across the region with an expected reduction in dry spells”.

“Incursions of Saharan dust typically peak in frequency at this time,” it added.

CariCOF said that as of April 1, moderate or worse, shorter-term drought has developed in northeast Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St Vincent, while moderate longer-term drought has developed in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (the ABC islands), Antigua, the northernmost and southeastern Bahamas, Barbados, southeast Belize, western Cuba, Dominica, eastern Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, southwest Haiti, eastern Jamaica, Martinique, St Kitts, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and the United States Virgin Islands.

It said long term drought is evolving in the ABC Islands, Barbados, most of Belize, western Cuba, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Kitts, St Lucia, Saint Martin, and the USVI and might develop or continue in the northern Bahamas, parts of eastern Belize, St Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago, and northern Suriname.

CariCOF warned that with few wet days, wildfire potential is expected to peak in May.