FOR a long time the relationship between Latin America and the United States has fluctuated between good and strained. Indeed, requests from Latin America have, in some instances, been more than the what US was prepared to provide.

For example, after World War II Latin America, a non-combatant, wanted a Marshall Plan like that extended to Western Europe. It did not happen, but at the height of the Cold War the US led the Alliance for Progress in the 1960s.

In 1991 then US President George Bush launched the Enterprise for the Americas Initiative.

Twenty-eight years ago, US President Bill Clinton launched the Summit of the Americas process of hemispheric dialogue in Miami. It generated interest for a while because of the idea of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).

However, when the FTAA negotiations broke down in 2005 the deadline set for completion of the process lost momentum.

Next month, the Ninth Summit of the Americas will take place in Los Angeles, California. Summits have taken place in Santiago, Chile (1998); Quebec City, Canada (2001); Mar del Plata, Argentina (2005); Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago (2009); Cartagena, Colombia (2012); Panama City, Panama (2015); and Lima, Peru (2018).

Throughout its existence, though, the summit has been plagued by a number of problems.

First, it was and still is regarded as an American initiative in spite of the assertiveness of Brazil, which saw itself as leader of South America and therefore a co-chair of the process.

Second, there has never been full participation since the US insisted on excluding Cuba on the basis that it was not a genuinely electoral democracy. Cuba’s exclusion has been opposed by many countries, including those of Caricom.

The participation issue, we note, continues because Cuba will not be invited, and the Nicholas Maduro Government of Venezuela, as well as the Daniel Ortega Administration in Nicaragua, may be excluded.

Third, when Hugo Chavez was president of Venezuela he had formed an alternative grouping called the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas. That resulted in no declaration agreed among the leaders at the Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain.

Fourth, no consensus has emerged on an agenda, even though the White House announced in January that the summit will focus on the theme ‘Building a Sustainable, Resilient, and Equitable Future’ under four priority areas detailed in an October 2021 concept paper.

If some countries are excluded, there may be leaders in the region who decide not to attend or to be represented — even at the ministerial level. If that is the case, it would mean that any and all decisions would not enjoy hemispheric support.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine will most likely place energy, specifically oil, at the top of the agenda. The US has already engaged Venezuela to try to influence how quickly capacity can be restored, who will be supplied, and who will not. Escalation in the price of oil is already having significant impact worldwide and will drive the inflation forecast to reach as high as 10 per cent.

US policy on migrants, we expect, will also be on the agenda and will preoccupy Mexico and Central America. This is most contentious issue because the Trump Administration policy continues while US aid to Central America has been limited.

Despite these issues, the discussions could be worthwhile.