IF persons were asked what group is the victim of the largest and longest genocide in human history, they would automatically say European Jews, at the hands of the Nazis in World War II.

They would be mistaken. It is west Africans who were captured and sent to the Pan American region, up until the late 1800s.

If persons were asked who is the biggest beneficiary of welfare in the United States of America (USA) they would likely say blacks or Latinos. They would be wrong, it is Caucasians.

If persons were asked which ethnic group is killed most often by the police in the USA, they again would likely say it is blacks. They would again be wrong — and it’s not Latinos or Asians, it’s Caucasians.

I am saying all this to say that what we think is happening is often driven by several factors such as marketing, ethnic group promotion, profiling, media, or simply sensationalism.

So when the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) releases its crime statistics and it is shown that there has been a reduction in all major crimes and all jaws drop, it’s not a con, or a scam. It’s just facts.

So, let’s look on this reduction. Murders are down by 20 per cent, robberies are down by 31 per cent, shootings are down by 11 per cent, and rape by a whopping 49 per cent.

Why are the jaws open and the doubting Thomases knitting their brows?

That is because the public is treated to a diet of videos showing murder victims, guns barking, and armed robberies.

A sensational video, however, is not a study of crime or criminal activity.

When I released a statistic in a study I had done that showed Old Harbour with a higher per capita rate of murder between 2015 to 2018 than Central Village, a number of esteemed lawmen turned to their calculators to check their data. But I was right. Lawmen focus on numbers of victims, not numbers per 100,000.

When statistics are released to a division comparing murders per division, you don’t see a population comparison — it’s simply how much per division. So, for example, Portmore could have more murders than Hanover but a lower rate per capita, as per capita is measured by per 100,000 persons.

Portmore is densely populated, significantly more than Hanover or Portland.

So, lots of news about shootings don’t necessarily translate to an increase.

So at this point let me congratulate the JCF high command on this recent achievement. This after Jamaica achieved a five-year reduction in crime between 2017 to 2022.

How was this achieved?

It’s difficult to say, but I think it could indicate that the anti-gang legislation and its very public trial has dissuaded the gangsters from pushing for more notoriety through increased homicides.

It could indicate that no don is hoping for his neighbourhood to be declared a zone of special operation.

It could indicate that the use of states of emergencies as a response to active warfare is bearing fruit.

So how does this impact my Haiti comparison?

The homicide rate is not what pushes us to a Haitian crime environment as we have and had for many years a higher rate of murder than Haiti.

What makes Haiti an environment you don’t want to replicate is the fact that Haitian gangs don’t fear law enforcement, they openly challenge them.

They also win.

They take territory and take governmental control of that region. They are in charge.

It is like an INDECOM euphoria, where the security forces are incapable of battling the gangs and actively avoid conflict at all costs.

However, in Haiti it occurs not because they are in fear of an organisation that is under foreign influence and control like us, but rather because they are outgunned, outnumbered and out-resourced.

This is where we are in peril. The recent robberies indicate steps to an environment where our armed forces are not feared.

We welcome the reduced homicide rate, and reduction in all other major crimes.

We now have to keep going at it using the same strategies, but strengthen them with steps that allow for indefinite detention.

Ironically, we will likely get this change now that it is clear the attack has been launched against the commerce of the country, with an aim to become wealthy at the expense of others.

It should have happened with a united Parliament when the gangs were killing women, children and babies.

Well welcome to modern Jamaica and its selective response to treachery.

I predict a reduction in crime for this calendar year. Perhaps as much as 15 per cent on murder.

Robberies, although more sensational, will be less frequent, and shootings will also reduce.

This will be a major achievement.

However, for us to defeat the gangs we need to move now and keep our feet firmly on their neck.

Either that or they will simply change focus and challenge their efforts to ending our way of life.

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