The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will win the 17th local government elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944, which will be held on February 26, 2024.

Recall that in my The Agenda piece on January 14, 2024 I said: “In recent days, kind individuals have sent me information which shows a trajectory which favours the JLP. I believe the information is credible. Why? My readers would have noticed that I took a break from this space in mid-December 2023. Since then I have been visiting certain key parishes on weekends. There is plenty of congruence between the mentioned information sent to me and the findings from my weekend immersions/visits.”

I have completed my weekend visits into key parishes. Last week a generous person pushed some very revealing scientific poll findings under my door. Based on the combination of those poll findings, my observations, and the clear message, momentum, and more money of the JLP, as I see it, I am forecasting a JLP victory resembling November 28, 2016.

February 26, 2024, will be a political extinction event for People’s National Party (PNP) President Mark Golding, I believe.

An ominous cloud

I believe a doomy cloud, similar to 2015, is hanging over 89 Old Hope Road.

Doubtless, many in Norman Manley’s party are figuring “Time come” for the PNP to win a consequential election. They should carefully examine the foundations of their party. Recall that in 2015 some of the most senior leaders in the PNP said their party’s election machinery was as strong as the Rock of Gibraltar. Credible information in the public domain said the opposite.

On October 25, 2015 I said here that then Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller would be defeated by Andrew Holness and the JLP. Our 17th parliamentary election was held on February 25, 2016. I was proved right.

For those who are obsessed with turf, I repeat what I said here some years ago: “I am careful not to trespass, so I declare that I am not a pollster.”

My forecast in 2015 was not based on prophetic abilities. I have none. They were based on credible poll findings which someone generously made available to me, personal immersions into key constituencies, and other credible sources of information. Recall I had made road trips into 10 parishes. The writing was on the wall for the PNP. This was evident to me at least five months before the February 25, 2016 General Election.

I consider myself a very discerning observer of our political tea leaves. In 2017 I said: “Dr Norman Dunn will win the by-election in St Mary South Eastern.” (Jamaica Observer, October 8, 2017). On October 22, 2017, I wrote: “The by-election in St Mary South Eastern is eight days from today. Two weeks ago I predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Dr Norman Dunn. Then, I based my prediction on poll findings of a credible pollster as told to me. I did not indicate what size of a win. Given information which I gathered last Saturday, and on National Heroes’ Day, in the constituency, and findings from credible polls which a very kind soul put under my door, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has covered St Mary South Eastern from end to end, I can now say Dr Dunn will cross the finish line very comfortably ahead of the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Dr Shane Alexis.” (Observer, October 22, 2017)

Dr Dunn trounced his opponent by over 900 votes.

The political weather in St Mary South Eastern had changed considerably. My informal chats in the constituency with bar operators, street entrepreneurs, housewives, taxi operators, farmers, and numerous young people in particular, told me as much.

In the St Mary South Eastern by-election the PNP said their machinery was rock-solid. Those of us who are not tricked by camouflage realised, however, that the scaffolding which held up the PNP’s machinery was built with rotten wood and rusty mental. When a political party finds itself in this invidious position, arrogance – invariably sets in.

Recall this self-inflicted wound?

TV reporter: If the PNP should lose that seat.

Dr Peter Phillips: There is no if; it is a PNP seat.

TV reporter: But if the PNP should lose that seat.

Dr Peter Phillips: There is no if, there is no if, there is no if; it is a PNP seat.

TV reporter: So, you are saying, regardless of what the JLP does.

Dr Peter Phillips: We are going to win the seat.

It was a monumental political faux pas in the run-up to the by election in Portland Eastern.

It was also a very powerful reminder that some politicians still believe that voters in general, and specifically in certain constituencies, are mere automatons.

Almost four years later the PNP is still atop his high horse.

Here is a recent example of its egotism on steroids: “As Comrade Small said: All PNP, any little issue, any likkle fliction, just low that man until we win the election. If you want tek it up after that, mi nuh business, but between now and election, we ah one family and we nah deal with dem likkle petty thing deh, ‘cause we want to move forward together. Togetherness and unity is gonna drive the victory.”

I believe the PNP still suffers with a Teflon complex. Control of conduits, which at one time significantly helped the PNP to determine what a large part of the population thought and how often, is now considerably diminished, if not inoperable. A critical mass at 89 Hope Road just does not get that.

I think it was the weight of the PNP’s Teflon complex which led Golding, for example, to commit this most egregious declaration during a St Andrew East Rural constituency conference at Donald Quarrie High School: “Everybody, mek up unnu mind! Work has to be done. It not going happen [just] so. We have to mek sure seh every Comrade who voted for the People’s National Party in 2011 and delivered the victory, if they’re still alive, dem haffi go vote fi Comrade Patrick Peterkin when the election call, and even some who not alive, you know if dem can deal with it, no problem.” (The Gleaner, July 25, 2023)

Seven days before the local government election, the PNP has yet to present a cohesive and fully-costed set of policies and programmes for how it will do a better job than the incumbent. This is arrogance gone mad, I believe.

Failed formula from 2015

But back to the by-election in Portland Eastern. Recall I wrote, among other things: “My three visits to Portland Eastern to find out how folks intended to vote was a ringside seat to the significant shifts in political tectonic plates.”

On March 31, 2019 I said in this space: “Given information which I gathered on three visits to Portland Eastern and the findings of the Jamaica Observer/Bill Johnson polls, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has engaged Portland Eastern from end to end, I am predicting that the JLP will overturn the sizeable winning margin which Dr Lynvale Bloomfield registered in 2016.

“I am calling the by-election in Portland Eastern for the JLP’s Ann-Marie Vaz. She will cross the finish line before Senator Damion Crawford, and she won’t be spent from the sprint.”

My forecast was described as “politically sacrilegious” by a learned person on social media. A friend of mine said: “The PNP will not lose East Portland; not in 100 years.” One of my readers sent me this terse message: “2,226, JLP, cyah cross it.” The late Dr Bloomfield had actually won the seat in the February 25, 2016 General Election by 2,276 votes. Some pundits and polling experts, too cowardly to ‘call it’ because they were left with egg all over their faces owing to their wayward predictions in January/February 2016, hedged their bets and/or spoke out of both sides of their mouths.

Senator Damion Crawford, then vice-president of the PNP and then the most popular politician in that party, was soundly defeated by a then political neophyte Vaz in the by election on April 4, 2019. She received 9,917 votes and Crawford got 9,611. I was proved right.

The PNP did not have a clear message; Dr Peter Phillips, then president, did not have momentum on his side; and the PNP’s big funders supported only half-heatedly. As I see it, pages from the playbook of 2015 is being used by the PNP today.

The winning card

Golding says the outcome of the local government elections will be a referendum on the Andrew Holness-led Administration. That sounds like political deflection.

I noted here several months ago that the reliable Black-bellied Plovers, Bananaquits, and John Chewits had tweeted that if Golding did not win, or achieve a decent draw, he would have to fly away from his lofty perch at 89 Hope Road.

Deflections will not help Golding. The outcome will be a contest of reality, boots on the ground, strategic organisational execution, and unity of purpose.

Politics is a team sport. I don’t see a cohesive team alongside Golding. Conspicuously absent from the campaign trail is Lisa Hanna, the former spokesperson on foreign affairs and foreign trade and Member of Parliament (MP) for St Ann South Eastern; Senator Damion Crawford, spokesperson on education; and Dr Morais Guy, MP for St Mary Central and former spokesperson on health and Wellness are MIA.

Major divisions in the PNP are still very loud. This is not a formula for winning.

On the subject of winning, I believe Prime Minister Andrew Holness hit a superb six in Clarks Town, Trelawny, recently: “We will deliver the next version of ‘1.5’,” said he.

Recall the PNP said the 1.5 tax threshold plan was “deceptive and laced with empty promises”. Dr Peter Phillips, then minister of finance argued that its implementation would bankrupt the country. It was successfully implemented.

Now the PNP says it is a convert of raising the tax threshold. The PNP said recently that it supports raising the income tax threshold beyond the $2.2 million that the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CAPRI) has recommended, and which Dr Nigel Clarke, our minister of finance and public service said the Administration would be amenable to in May of last year.

Recently, former PNP General Secretary Maxine Henry Wilson said she was “concerned that the leadership of her party is overpromising in its message to the electorate ahead of the local government elections on February 26”. (Nationwide News Network, February 2, 2024)

I think Henry Wilson is on to something. Rural folks say “When fish come from river bottom and tell you say shark dung deh, you must believe him.”

I think Holness’s commitment to another fully financed income tax threshold relief will sufficiently motivate dozens to come out and vote.

I said here weeks ago that the local government elections would be decided by uncommitted voters in marginal divisions. I think they have now decided.