UNLIKE a general election where the winner is the party which captures the majority of the 63 seats, it is not as simple to determine the winner of the local government elections, unless there is a blowout by either the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP).

For veteran journalist and political commentator Cliff Hughes, either party which emerges tonight with more divisions and control of more municipal bodies than 2016 can claim victory.

“You have to come out with more than you went in with. For example, the PNP, going into local government election has five municipal corporations, they have to come out with not only the five, but they will have to demonstrate a net gain in the number of municipalities they would have won by the end of the night,” Hughes told the
Jamaica Observer on the eve of today’s election.

“Another metric to measure who wins is that the PNP is going in with 98 electoral divisions, the JLP is going in with 130 of the 228 electoral divisions. Now, at the end of the night, whoever comes out with more than what they went in would have won.

“So, if the JLP were to increase that 130… to 140, 150, the JLP would have won. If the PNP were to move their 98 divisions to in excess of 100, they can brag that they would have won,” added Hughes.

He noted that the other thing to factor in is the big prize of the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation (KSAMC) which both parties are desperate to win.

“Going into today’s election the JLP is in control of the KSAMC, but when you delve into the 2016 numbers that was barely won by a vote or two votes from the Rae Town Division that gave the JLP marginal control,” said Hughes as he noted that the JLP picked up two other divisions since 2016 with the PNP’s Kari Douglas and Venesha Phillips crossing the floor.

“But, based on the 2016 vote, both parties are going into the 2024 election even-steven. Now, who comes out with a majority of the 40 electoral divisions in the Corporate Area [will be a winner]. Let me tell you, they are fighting tooth and nail… this is hand-to-hand combat,” said Hughes, who listed Rae Town, Papine, Harbour View, Hughenden and the traditional PNP strongholds of Brandon Hill and Duhaney Park among the Corporate Area divisions to be watched closely when the votes are being counted tonight.

In the meantime, political analysts Mark Wignall is not expecting either party to win by a landslide tonight.

“I am not going to rule out miracles happening, but they tend not to happen in politics,” Wignall told the
Observer as he examined what victory would look like for the JLP and the PNP.

“I’m not seeing a blowout but I am seeing a sneaking through for the JLP at this time,” added Wignall.

He argued that the leaders of the two major political parties, Prime Minister Andrew Holness and Opposition Leader Mark Golding, have staked a lot on today’s election and both will be seeking to claim victory.

“But the victory for either party could be different, and I expect both sides to seek to downplay the achievement of the other party while playing up their achievement,” said Wignall.

He agreed that for the PNP to claim victory it will need to hang on to the municipal corporations which it won in 2016
— St Catherine, Portmore, Hanover, Westmoreland, Manchester, plus the Portmore mayoral race.

In addition, Wignall agreed that the PNP would need to capture the KSAMC, and the municipal corporations in at least two, or even better three, of Portland, St Mary, St Thomas, and St Ann.

“Both political leaders, especially the JLP leader, have been grabbing for what suits them best, with the JLP leader rightly focusing on macro-economic issues, but I believe that if a significant per cent of a reduced electorate decide to go for local government matters in a negative way that could provide a significant win for Golding and his team,” said Wignall.

For the JLP, the political analyst argued that Holness and his team would need to retain the eight municipal bodies the party won in 2016 while taking St Thomas, which ended five-five in 2016. In addition, the JLP would need to win St Catherine and Portmore to blow the PNP out of the water.

“The JLP is ahead in the enthusiasm race and that could prove decisive when the votes are counted tonight,” declared Wignall.