Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged Jamaicans to take the necessary precautionary steps for adverse weather conditions as Beryl strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season on Saturday with forecasters warning it will swiftly become a major storm.

Much of the south-east Caribbean was on alert Saturday afternoon as the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl — churning in the Atlantic Ocean about 720 miles (1,160 kilometres) east of Barbados — would become a “dangerous major hurricane” by the time it reached the Windward Islands late Sunday into Monday.

Barbados was under a hurricane warning, while St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada all had hurricane watches in place, the NHC said in an advisory Saturday afternoon.

In the Barbadian capital Bridgetown, cars were seen lining up at gas stations, while supermarkets and groceries stores were crowded with shoppers buying food, water and supplies.

A major hurricane is considered a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

Such a powerful storm forming this early in the Atlantic hurricane season — which runs from early June to late November — is extremely rare, experts said.

“Only five major (Category 3+) hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic before the first week of July. Beryl would be the sixth and earliest this far east in the tropical Atlantic,” hurricane expert Michael Lowry posted on X, formerly Twitter.

The NHC said, as of Saturday afternoon, Beryl’s maximum sustained winds had increased to near 75 miles per hour (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

“Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night,” it said, warning of heavy rain, flooding, and “life-threatening winds and storm surge”.

“Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 per cent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater,” the NHC said.

The Saffir-Simpson wind scale designates Category 1 hurricanes as having wind speeds at least 74 miles per hour, up to Category 5 storms with winds of 157 mph or higher.

Although the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) said on Saturday afternoon that Beryl is not an immediate threat to Jamaica, Prime Minister Holness noted that various models have projected that the cyclone will probably impact the island.

“All the models have suggested that if it is not direct impact, it will be in the vicinity of Jamaica. We expect that this will bring adverse weather conditions, and we expect that by Wednesday morning we will be experiencing such conditions,” Holness said at a consultative conference in St Andrew Southern.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to get your precautionary stocks in place; your stock of goods, food, your batteries and candles, a supply of water just in case. Ensure that your critical documents are secure. If there are any trees or other things that could be of danger to your property, please ensure that you take the necessary actions to secure those items and to secure your property as well,” he said.

The prime minister said that all the government agencies are in hurricane mode, with the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) on alert, should the worst happen.

“It is now for the citizens themselves, house owners, people who live alone to be aware of the possibility and take the necessary actions,” said Holness.

“It is better to be prepared than to be sorry that you didn’t prepare, so I encourage all Jamaicans to take the necessary steps. We are now in the hurricane season, and we should have already taken those steps, but I’m giving advanced notice that there is the potential of serious adverse weather, possibly a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane, so we should take the necessary precautionary steps now,” he stressed.

Early on Saturday, expert meteorologist and owner of Continental Weather Corporation Alan Archer said Beryl is estimated to strengthen and then weaken before it passes Jamaica on Wednesday.

“It is expected to be strengthening over the next 48 hours and then into the Caribbean Monday, and then beginning Tuesday, once it gets a little further in the Caribbean, the thinking is that conditions will be less favourable for development. It will probably weaken sometime upon approach to Jamaica towards Wednesday night,” he told the Jamaica Observer .

“I would expect to see Wednesday night our worst weather…There could be some localised flooding from that as well,” he warned.

“At this point in time, I would just keep a real good eye on the weather… I think the confidence level is pretty high on this in light of the fact that from one mile run to the next mile run, the prediction is pretty much on target. It’s not varying much,” he said, urging Jamaicans to still make the necessary preparations.

The Met Service, in a release on Saturday afternoon, said it will continue to monitor the system.

“Be advised that, although the projections seem to suggest a direct hit …on Jamaica sometime on Wednesday next week, the cone actually is indicating that the centre could also pass over 150 miles away from our coastlines. In any case, prepare for the worst,” the Met Service said on social media platform X.

The Met Service said it continues to monitor other tropical disturbances over the Atlantic and western Caribbean, as further threats to Jamaica are possible.

“There is a second system developing behind [Beryl] which is currently being called Tropical Strom Chris and this one is going to track very similar, but being weaker and pass close to Jamaica next Saturday night,” Archer told the Sunday Observer.

Forecasters predict that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be extremely active.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlook for the year estimates an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 10 per cent chance of a near-normal season, and a five per cent chance of a below-normal season.

The predicted high level of unusual activity is said to be due to multiple factors which favour tropical storm formation. These include the near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear.

Regional forecasters predict there will be up to 29 named storms, 13 of which are likely to become hurricanes, including seven major hurricanes.

In May the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, at its Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forums, said historical activity in the region is similar to the years 2010, 2013, 2020 and 2023. It added that Sahara dust is also expected to impact weather conditions in the region.

“With no intrusion or very limited intrusion of the Sahara dust, a hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated,” said meteorologist Komalchand Dhiram at Hydrometeorological Service of Guyana who presented the findings of the outlook.

“If there is to be frequent Sahara dust, it will delay the onset of these activities, but not necessarily reduce the impact or the intensity of these activities. And that is because as we move away from August, the intrusion of Saharan dust decreases,” Dhiram explained.

In recent years, extreme weather events, including hurricanes, have become more frequent and more devastating as a result of climate change.

Two weeks ago, torrential rains across Central America left at least 27 people dead in landslides and flooding, mainly in El Salvador, but also in Guatemala and Honduras.

El Salvador’s Environment Minister Fernando Lopez said the deluge was a result of low pressure over the Pacific Ocean, with indirect influence from Tropical Storm Alberto which left four people dead in Mexico.