THE advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is the unavoidable technology story of the moment, and one particularly vibrant topic of discussion is AI’s potential impact on jobs.

Technology is generally seen as having a positive impact on the labour market, but the rise of AI has disrupted that consensus given its ability to automate higher-order intellectual activities. Emerging research appears to substantiate this view, signalling that AI will not only have a significant destructive effect on some occupations but will also impose significant changes on the wider workforce.

What is not yet clear is the form these changes will take, which occupations are likely to be altered, and which are likely to be eliminated altogether.

AI-vulnerable

To develop a clearer picture of this future we examined the tax and accounting professions. We began by mapping the specific tasks practitioners carry out, according to the different stages of career level, and then modelled the vulnerability of each task to AI automation.

Our analysis suggests that the tax and accounting professions will not be immune to the impact of AI, with a significant number of tasks likely to be automated in the near future. Taking a more nuanced approach, however, we find that it is those tasks typically performed by trainees and entry-level practitioners (invariably the most time-consuming, repetitive tasks) which are most at risk of automation, while those tasks associated with more senior roles — such as the development of tax strategies for clients or the critiquing of national or international tax policy — are less susceptible.

In short, the effects of automation will be felt differently at different stages of the practitioner career pathway. This gives rise to several important and related issues which the profession must now consider.

Knowledge development

While many tasks associated with entry-level positions are considered basic and repetitive they nonetheless aid in the development of a wide range of skills, both technical and practical, including communication, teamwork and time management. Such skills form the critical foundations for a successful career, but with the underlying tasks at serious risk of automation there are questions as to how new recruits will acquire these skills.

As well as damaging the immediate acquisition of skills, AI penetration may also have longer-term effects that will take time to become apparent. Relatively basic practical skills provide the foundations necessary to develop higher-order skills and competencies, and it is certainly reasonable to suggest that individuals who haven’t internalised those skills to an almost instinctive level may struggle to develop the higher-order skills that will remain valuable in the AI future.

Given these risks, firms must begin to act now to mitigate the potential knowledge challenges that AI may raise.

First, organisations will need to look at the support and training they provide to new recruits. For example, it is possible to imagine a future when organisations assign work to new recruits to serve as a learning activity, even though that work could be performed more efficiently by an AI system. Such inefficiency would be anathema today but may become necessary in the future.

Second, as it may take several years for knowledge gaps created in the talent pipeline to become apparent, it is important that stakeholders in the profession put early warning processes in place to monitor knowledge gaps if talent shortfalls are to be avoided later.

Career turn-off

Our research also explored the impact AI is likely to have on the attractiveness of entering the accounting and tax professions. A rational decision-maker (exactly the type of person these professions wish to attract) appraising newspaper reports and academic forecasts today may reasonably conclude there will be fewer opportunities offered by these professions in the future and pursue an alternative career. Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests this may have already begun, with many observers and practitioners reporting fewer young people worldwide choosing to pursue a career in the accounting and tax professions.

While any trend of such magnitude undoubtedly has many root causes, it is reasonable to assume that the generally negative prognosis of the impact of AI on the accounting and tax professions, as reported in the media, is having some impact.

If the accounting and tax professions wish to continue to attract the best and the brightest to their ranks we argue there must be a concerted effort to ensure that these professions not only offer opportunities to newcomers but also widely publicise those opportunities. Burying one’s head in the sand and adopting an, “It’ll never happen” narrative seem unlikely to resonate in the current global media environment, so we argue that a clear message focusing on how the professions will adapt and change in the context of AI is needed.

A challenge to ‘up or out’

Firms employing tax and accounting professionals typically use the ‘up or out’ model of career progression. In other words, on completion of their training contracts, trainees in practice firms either progress internally to more senior positions or leave to pursue roles in industry.

The largely unspoken assumption of this model, however, is that there will always be a relatively large number of new entrants to serve both pathways. If the number of new entrants shrinks — both because there is a reduced need for entry-level recruits and the professions become less attractive — this raises serious questions as to whether the up or out model is still tenable.

To that end, we argue that the accounting and tax professions may need to explore alternative models for personnel replenishment, such as those focusing on longitudinal, individualised talent development as is the case in medicine, for example. This would undoubtedly require significant change and may present a challenge to organisational cultures, especially those that have traditionally thrived on hypercompetition.

AI is unlikely to result in the end of the accounting and tax professions. However, the widescale deployment of AI is likely to significantly alter the shape and structure of traditional career pathways within the profession. To minimise disruption, organisations need to start planning for the AI future today.

Dr Patrick Buckley, Dr Brendan McCarthy and Professor Elaine Doyle, Kemmy Business School, University of Limerick authored this article.

Source: ACCA’s Accounting and Business magazine