BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC)— The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) Monday warned that a disturbance located a few hundred miles away from the Lesser Antilles, could become Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season within the next 48 hours.

In its latest bulletin, the NHC said that the Antigua and Barbuda government has upgraded its tropical storm watch to a warning that also includes the islands of Montserrat, St Kitts-Nevis and Anguilla.

A similar warning has gone into effect for the Dutch Caribbean islands of Saba and St Eustatius, as well as the French islands of Guadeloupe, St Martin, and St Barthelemy.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the British and United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

NHC said the weather system is centred near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 54.3 West and is moving toward the west near 26 miles per hour (mph).

“A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening,” the NHC said.

It said the maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts and that ‘some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

“The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands,” NHC said.

NHC said that the system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of four to six inches over portions of the Leeward Islands.