WITH agriculture being one of the areas badly affected by the effects of Hurricane Beryl, former president of Jamaica Agricultural Society (JAS) Lenworth Fulton has predicted that output from the sector at the end of the current July-September quarter could fall by as much as 10 per cent.

Despite estimated out-turns of some 2.7 per cent reported for the previous April-June quarter — when the sector saw increases in other agricultural crops, up 3.8 per cent, and traditional crops, up 6.4 per cent — damage to a number of the island’s main farming parishes from the July 3 hurricane, coupled with prolonged fallouts from previous adverse weather conditions, could push the sector into reverse, the former JAS head believes.

Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), in a preliminary report last week, has already shared a forecast for economic output at the end of the July-September period, to contract within the range of -0.1 per cent to -1.0 per cent largely due to hurricane-related impacts. The report, in pointing to possible downturns in a number of industries, including agriculture, indicated that estimated damages of $10 billion and significant fallout in output for farmers along the southern belt of the island will negatively affect crop production.

“From where I sit, and based on the reported fallouts, I don’t think any decline to come will be less than 10 per cent— which if materialised will be a major hit for the sector. When things such as poultry meats and other proteins, as well legumes, fruits, vegetables and other segments are factored, that downturn could even be greater as there is nothing in the fields to reap, so farmers are now busy replanting,” he said in a recent interview with the Jamaica Observer.

Bemoaning the damage done in Westmoreland, St Elizabeth, Clarendon, and Manchester — which together cultivate a large cross section of domestic crops — Fulton said there should be similar cocncerns regarding other parishes such as St Mary in which the hurricane uprooted more than 80 per cent of the island’s main plantain and banana produce.

“In light of all the damage it will take us another full year to get these plants back up to point of reaping, so it’s going to be a major setback for the sector. What this also means is that there will be longer periods of scarcity and higher prices for certain produce.

“As farmers, we are not doing agriculture for ourselves, but for the consumers to eat. And if they can’t afford to buy our produce then agriculture will die, as supermarkets, and hotels and other players will not let their customers and guests die from hunger so they will have to turn to import — and that is definitely not what we want,” Fulton added.

Regarding the reported 2.7 per cent June output being relatively low, Fulton said his expectation was for the agriculture sector to have witnessed growth within the region of five to seven per cent.

For the first six months of 2024 growth from the sector, according to PIOJ estimates, was said to have increased by approximately five per cent.

The former JAS head, in continuing his call for greater investment in the sector — investment which he believes should start from the government level — said that amid continued shocks to the industry the time is now ripe for long-standing issues, such as land reforms, access to financing and the need for proper storage facilities, to be fully addressed.

He said that for a sector having a register of over 250,000 farmers and some eight per cent in annual contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), not enough is being done to ensure its growth and sustainability.

“I’m still of the view that more lands need to get into the hands of farmers. We also need to make more investment money available for them to borrow, as handouts and government subsidy alone cannot build the sector. We also need to build more storage facilities — not necessarily to give to farmers but for them to rent for storage so that they can make more money. These three areas I believe are paramount for us as a sector in moving forward,” Fulton also said while calling for the start of a farmer confidence survey to measure the needs and impact of the sector.

“We are not capturing enough data in agriculture to properly inform the relevant stakeholders of what the sector’s true needs look like. An undertaking of this magnitude, which would have a certain level of scope, I think will be best suited if done from a national level — whether through private sector, Government or donor funding,” he further stated.