Barring any unforeseen natural or geopolitical developments, the next parliamentary election to decide the future leadership of the country will be held by October 2025.

We are, therefore, essentially entering the final year when that has to happen. The political posturing from both major political parties — the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) — has already started.

The recent Bluedot polls conducted on behalf of Nationwide News Network seems to have concluded that there is the general perception that the race will be quite close. There is no party with a decided advantage that could lead to a blowout in its favour.

The polls have even concluded that with regard to Dr Nigel Clarke, minister of finance, a significant number of those polled regarded his stewardship of the finance portfolio as average. Despite the macroeconomic stability that has been achieved, they do not have a sterling opinion of his stewardship. For them, there is still a significant detachment between the macro and the micro imperatives in the economy; that although the fiscal strength of the economy has never been better, they are not feeling it in their pockets when they go to the supermarkets, the gas stations, and receive the inordinately high utility bills monthly.

Their personal situations have not improved and the misery they often feel is not dissipating. The ruling JLP has to share a great deal of the blame for this. For them, part of the problem lies in how poorly they have communicated the Government’s achievements. For example, they have not helped people to understand the connection between strong fiscal stability and the Government’s ability to roll out new buses for the transport sector, enhance capacity in the health space, or the soon-to-be-rolled out $40-billion Shared Prosperity through Accelerated Improvement to our Road Network (SPARK) Programme for the rehabilitation of roads. These, including other initiatives, have been done using taxpayers’ funds and not from borrowing as was the case in the past. These are all related to the strong management of the economy.

In this Dr Clarke was integral. But that so many should register an almost negative assessment of his performance tells a story of the poor communication which may come back to haunt the JLP in the election. Who replaces Clarke at the finance ministry is important but will cause little shift in public sentiment over the short term in which the election has to be held. It is quite possible that those who view him negatively may not miss him since they now think the purse strings can be loosened.

But Prime Minister Andrew Holness would be well advised to resist any seductions to embark on a “run wid it” scheme going into the general election. In fact, he should make this a clear commitment as the elections approach. The macroeconomic integrity that has been achieved at great sweat and pain by the Jamaican people must remain sacrosanct.

The prime minister’s statutory declaration which has not been certified by the Integrity Commission (IC) will be a big factor in the PNP’s attempt to win power. As I said in a previous piece, it is unfortunate that after almost three years, with foreign audit experts to assist, the IC has submitted a report to Parliament which is still inconclusive.

It is good that the parliamentary oversight committee, which has responsibility for the IC, has called the group to a meeting, which I understand it has decided to attend. The IC has left more questions than answers in its report, and it needs to give an account of its stewardship, to clear the air and, in particular, explain why it did not certify the prime minister’s declaration when it and its foreign expert, who they hired at considerable expense to the taxpayers, found no wrongdoing on his part.

As we approach the election, serious concern must be raised about the unaffiliated, undecideds, or independents who have pulled themselves from the electoral process. This group has grown steadily over the years and now stand in the region of about 50 per cent of the voting population. That leaves 50 to 55 per cent to be divided between the PNP and JLP. If you allocate an equal number, say 25 or even 30 per cent to both, you do not have to be a brilliant mathematician to see the serious risk or danger that faces the democratic prospects of the country.

What this means is that the success of either party at the polls will depend substantially on its ability to motivate or to get out its tribes to the polling booth. The side that can influence even a small percentage of the independents to join them will win the day if their diehard turn out remains strong.

The Bluedot polls have shown that there is a little shift of the independent sentiment in favour of the JLP. This means that within the independent ranks there are those who, while they may not be satisfied with the performance of the Government, are willing to go with the JLP. This is not a wholesale rejection of the PNP, and the JLP would be foolish to think so.

What is worrying to me, and should be so for all well-thinking Jamaicans, is that with the withdrawal of such a large and growing segment of the voting population, we may well be paving the road towards a dictatorship of the minority. Especially coming out of the last parliamentary elections in 2020 when only 37 per cent of the 1.9 million eligible voters voted. This was the lowest since 1983 when the PNP did not contest the election.

The municipal elections are not good barometers to assess voter turnout sentiments, but one can bet that there are more people who have pulled out of the electoral process since the last general election.

An honest assessment of this trend will reveal that increasingly and inexorably Jamaica is being governed by a dictatorship of the minority. Of the 37 per cent who chose to vote in 2020, which was just a small sliver of the voting population, the JLP ran ahead with a resounding victory. Expanded to the general population, it should be clear to us that we are being ruled by the decisions of a few diehards of a political tribe.

Stop reading for a moment and consider what this may mean for you and the future of the country. Consider whether this trend does not constitute the greatest threat to our democratic way of life.

Sitting on the fence and not participating should not be comfortable — not when it is a barbed-wire fence.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest, social commentator, and author of the books Finding Peace in the Midst of Life’s Storms; Your Self-esteem Guide to a Better Life; and Beyond Petulance: Republican Politics and the Future of America. He hosts a podcast – Mango Tree Dialogues – on his YouTube channel. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or stead6655@aol.com.

Dr Raulston Nembhard