Audrey Tugwell Henry, president and CEO of Scotiabank Jamaica, doesn’t mince words about the vulnerabilities facing the Caribbean in the wake of shifting US policies under President Donald Trump.

“As a heavy import [dependent] economy, the Caribbean is vulnerable to inflationary pressures from tariffs,” she warned during a recent panel discussion.

Trump’s renegotiation of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), now the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), serves as a stark reminder of his Administration’s aggressive trade stance, which could ripple into Caribbean markets. Tugwell Henry elaborated on the stakes for the region on the closing day of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Regional Conference 2025.

“I know that a lot of our manufacturers and other companies were looking to increase in exports and if there are significant tariffs that will be levied, it might make that very, very difficult. All around, the rhetoric so far has created a lot of uncertainty, and we just have to watch it to see how it will go,” she said.

Her concerns are reinforced by President Trump’s broader trade policies, including proposals for a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and additional levies on Chinese goods. These measures, designed to bolster US domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, may inadvertently harm Caribbean economies reliant on US trade flows. Tugwell Henry pointed to diversification as the primary solution to these vulnerabilities.

“The truth is that I think we as a Caribbean region also can do a lot more together. There’s a lot more trade that can happen in the Caribbean, and we can think about how do we reinvigorate and rethink Caricom, and how do we expand trade to even Mexico, which is also in the bullseye of the current US Administration,” she said, adding that increasing regional self-reliance could act as a buffer against external shocks.

“I don’t think doom and gloom because there’s a bigger world outside of the United States of America.”

Her cautionary tone was shared by other business leaders navigating the complexities of Trump’s policies.

James McLetchie, deputy CEO of Massy Group, highlighted the disruptive impact of US sanctions on Venezuela, a key trading partner for some Caribbean nations.

“The world is smaller and moves faster than ever,” McLetchie said during the segment of the panel discussion which focused on regional risk assessment.

“We will continue to monitor that. I’m a half-glass-full kind of a guy, so we will move forward with optimism, but we will model and understand the risk that’s coming to us.”

The Massy Group has been in operation since 1923 and has businesses throughout the Caribbean basin, as well as in Colombia and South Florida. The company is listed on the Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica stock exchanges.

For Trinidad and Tobago, where the energy sector plays a central role, such shocks include uncertainties tied to global market fluctuations and US foreign policy. McLetchie noted that effects of Venezuela’s economic turmoil, if not closely monitored, will disrupt energy supply chains and impact the region.

His remarks echo broader concerns about the implications of Trump’s energy policies, which prioritise fossil fuels over renewables and could exacerbate challenges for nations striving to transition to greener solutions. Adding to the complexity, Trump’s stance on immigration has raised alarms in Latin America and the Caribbean. Stricter immigration controls threaten to disrupt remittance flow and for many Caribbean families, remittances represent a lifeline — funding education, healthcare, and day-to-day living expenses. Deportation measures and the prospect of reduced opportunities for migrants in the US could strain economies already grappling with trade vulnerabilities.

Yet, amidst these challenges, some leaders see opportunities.

Robert Almeida, CEO of NCB Financial Group, points to tourism as a stabilising force.

“Tourism, which is our number one export, isn’t in the cross-hairs of tariffs. With US wealth growing, we could see increased visitor arrivals, presenting a great opportunity for countries like Jamaica,” Almeida noted. His optimism extends to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and US energy policies aimed at reducing costs.

“One of the biggest priorities for President Trump is bringing down the cost of energy, whether through fossil fuels, renewables, or even nuclear energy. For non-energy-producing countries in the Caribbean, this focus could present significant opportunities to lower costs and drive economic growth, especially in sectors reliant on affordable energy,” Almeida explained. He also urged Caribbean leaders to look beyond traditional growth areas.

When you consider the major trends and priorities highlighted in President Trump’s comments, there’s reason for optimism. However, we must carefully assess how to capitalise on these opportunities while staying mindful of potential risks. The key is to focus on areas where the Caribbean is not directly in the cross-hairs of negative policies and use that to our advantage,” Almeida said.

Environmental policies under the Trump Administration add another layer of complexity. Ivan Anderson, managing director at TransJamaican Highways Ltd, raised concerns about the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its impact on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. “Our ratings from agencies like Fitch and S&P consider how well we manage ESG compliance,” Anderson explained.

“Any shifts in global benchmarks could influence interest rates and financing options. The challenge is to maintain our commitments to sustainability while the global agenda appears to be shifting away from it.”

He pointed to TransJamaican Highways’ ongoing green initiatives as an example of how companies in the region could lead by example. “We are investing in renewable energy solutions and improving operational efficiencies, not just to align with ESG standards but because it’s the right thing to do for the environment and our bottom line.”

Similar anxieties are shared in Barbados, where reduced international support for climate initiatives threatens the progress of renewable energy projects. The Eastern Caribbean states, including Antigua and Barbuda and St Lucia, have also raised concerns about vulnerabilities tied to remittance flows and climate resilience.