Economic activities last year failed to deliver growth as real value-added for the local economy contracted 0.9 per cent between January to December of 2024, data from Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has shown.

In comparison to 2023, when real GDP is estimated to have grown by approximately 2 per cent, the downturn seen in 2024, PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said, comes as a result of lower real value added for both the goods producing and the services industries which went down 2.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively.

“Within goods producing, all industries recorded lower output levels, led by agriculture, forestry & fishing, down 3.4 per cent and construction, down 2.8 per cent,” he said in presenting the preliminary estimates for the October-December quarter and overall 2024 calendar year period.

Within the goods producing division the manufacturing industry also saw declines of 1.3 per cent as mining & quarry went down 0.4 per cent.

“For the services industry, all industries declined with the exception of electricity & water supply; transport, storage & communication; finance & insurance services and hotels & restaurant,” Henry further said.

The economy which continues to reel from the impacts of weather related shocks brought on since Hurricane Beryl and other hydrological events in the year, took most of its beating in the last two quarters of 2024.

Following a flat performance which saw little to no growth or a meagre expansion of 0.1 per cent in the April-June quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) output for the July-September quarter later fell 3.5 per cent continuing into the subsequent October-December quarter when it shrank 1.8 per cent.

Prior to the reported downturns the economy registered some 12 quarters of consecutive growth since the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As most major industries recorded declines during the last quarter, the finance and insurance sector as well as that for transport storage and communication were said to be only two registering growth of one per cent each. This was similar to that for the full calendar year when both grew 1.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.

Amid the two consecutive quarters of contraction and recurring talks of a recession, Henry said the economy, despite significant challenges stemming from the hydrological shocks and the resultant downturn in output, was not found to be in a recession at this time.

To this end, the contractions he said are likely to be temporary and should see the economy returning to growth in the near-term or as early as the current Jan-Mar quarter as the prospects continue to be generally positive.

“For the January to March 2025 quarter, growth is projected to be within the range of 0.1 per cent to 1.0 per cent. However, for fiscal year 2024/25 the economy is expected to contract within the range of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent,” Henry noted.

“The PIOJ is projecting that the economy will return to positive output performance [growth] in the January-March 2025 quarter. We will continue to monitor and track developments in the economy and will update our assessment as new data becomes available,” he also said during the briefing held midweek.

Preliminary data for January 2025 already indicates growth for the mining & quarrying industry following a 3.8 per cent expansion in bauxite production and 20 per cent increase in crude bauxite. A 6.2 per cent decrease in alumina production was, however ,recorded, coupled with 1 per cent decline in airport arrivals during the month.