Following a 12 per cent contraction in agricultural output during the last quarter of 2024, Minister of Agriculture Floyd Green said he is optimistic that growth will return early in the upcoming fiscal year as new initiatives are rolled-out and and increased production activities get underway.

Green, speaking with the Jamaica Observer recently said the sector’s decline brought on by a mix of weather-related events spanning drought, wind and rainfall is expected to temper down by about April or during the second quarter of 2025 as a raft of measures are implemented to assist it with getting back to full productivity.

Following on what he described as being a “very challenging year for agriculture”, one marred by earlier drought and other weather-related shocks such as Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Strom Rafael later in the year which brought damage to the largest producing parishes across St Elizabeth, Clarendon and Manchester, the local sector after experiencing much setback, he expects to get back to growth in a matter of months.

“We are looking towards a good year this year and we’re aiming for substantial growth, so we should see a big rebound in the agricultural sector during the course of this year. Definitely after the first quarter, in the other three months after, we are expecting to see very positive numbers. The first quarter, we believe, will continue to consolidate recovery efforts but looking forward and based on what we’ve seen thus far and from our allocations through the budget, we should have more resources to support the farmers so that the sector can build back stronger than before,” he said.

From the $1.2 billion in budgetary allocation announced by Finance Minister Fayal Williams on February 13, the minister said he also expects the sector to further benefit from a raft of new measures slated to come on stream in the new fiscal year which begins in April.

“From the allocation earmarked we are hoping to continue with providing incentives coupled with more targeted support for our farmers and fisherfolk. As we continue to infuse technology, the use of machinery as well as storage are just a few of the areas that we will be looking to spend significant sums on this year,” Green noted.

Additionally, greater focus he said will be given to expanding the country’s irrigation efforts. “We have some funds in the budget to start our Pedro Plains Irrigation Programme and so as we break ground for the engineering work…this will be a very big project that we are looking forward to.”

“Outside of these, resources will also be allocated to bring our agricultural wardens on board so that we can ramp up our fight against praedial larceny which continues to be a major deterrent, decreasing investments for the sector. As such, if we can get more boost on the ground, this too I believe will help in that regard,” Green added.

The agriculture sector which recorded the single largest downturn for all industries based on preliminary estimates released by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) last week failed to bear fruit during the October to December quarter as negative impacts from the series of hydrological events continued to trample on its gains.

The decline which PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry attributed largely to the continued fall-outs from Hurricane Beryl in June and Tropical Storm Rafael in November, he said, helped to deliver an 8.2 per cent decline in total hectares reaped and lower output per hectare for seven of nine domestic crop groups.

“The other agricultural crops component was estimated to have contracted by 5.2 per cent, reflecting lower production in seven of the nine crop groups, led by: Plantains, down 46.6 per cent; cereals, down 19.1 per cent; condiments, down 12.2 per cent; legumes, down 12.1 per cent and vegetables, down 8.5 per cent,” the data indicated.

During the period, lower output was also recorded for traditional export crops, which fell by 45.9 per cent as the production of cocoa went down 62.2 per cent; coffee by 24.2 per cent and banana by 47.7 per cent.

“A further decline in the industry was tempered by increased output in the animal farming component, which was estimated to have grown by 5.9 per cent — due to higher broiler meat production, up 10.2 per cent and which outweighed a 17.3 per cent reduction in egg production,” PIOJ data further showed.

The institute, in pointing to zero sugarcane production recorded during the review quarter, said however that this was due largely to the late start of the crop season when compared to the 18.6 kilo tonnes produced during the corresponding quarter of 2023.

With the agriculture sector ranked as one to have taken the hardest beating from the weather systems in 2024, its contraction, similar to that of the local economy, suffered some two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Before its current downturn of 12 per cent during last quarter, output y during the previous July-Sept quarter also registered a decline of 12.5 per cent.

For the local economy its estimated contractions were placed at 3.5 per cent for the July to September quarter and at 1.8 per cent during the October to December quarter. Shutting down talks of a recession, the PIOJ, despite the downturns in its short to medium term outlook said the projection is for growth to return for most sectors in the current Jan-March quarter.

Green, upbeat about the prospects for the sector’s recovery, though scheduled to get back on track in subsequent months, is heartened by the signs of increased production activities already being seen in a number of areas.

“This year we are very upbeat about the sector’s prospects and we’re already seeing a return to production in a number of areas — especially the vegetable line that suffered significantly and in which we’re now seeing upticks in the production of things like tomatoes, sweet pepper, lettuce, cabbage,” he stated.

GREEN… we are looking towards a good year this year and we’re aiming for substantial growth, so we should see a big rebound in the agricultural sector during the course of this year. Definitely after the first quarter, in the other three months after, we are expecting to see very positive numbers (Photo: Naphtali Junior)