To prevent a bad repeat of the worst nightmare scenarios of September 2007 to December 2011, the Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) needs to do far more than just win the upcoming parliamentary election, our 19th since Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944. The JLP needs to win big, at a minimum, 42 — two-thirds of the 63 seats.

Many who watch the swirling of our political tea leaves will recall that on September 3, 2007, a rejuvenated JLP, headed by Bruce Golding, defeated the People’s National Party (PNP) 32 to 28. Portia Simpson Miller, who had succeeded P J Patterson, was defeated in her first attempt to secure her own mandate. She hesitated to accept defeat. Thirteen days later she told the country that, under her leadership the PNP would have been the Administration’s worst nightmare. She executed. The advance of the Golding Administration was frustrated at every step of the way. Were the JLP to win in the numbers of 2007, the worst nightmare scenarios would be repeated, and multiplied.

A recent Bluedot Research Services national poll commissioned by
Nationwide News Network found that the JLP had a 6 point lead. Bluedot found that the JLP was leading the PNP in nine of our 14 parishes, when eligible voters were asked which political party would they vote for.

Bluedot also found that the JLP tied with the PNP in three parishes and that the PNP was leading in one. The poll was conducted between January 21 and February 1, 2025.

These findings are good news for 20 Belmont Road and bad news for 89 Old Hope Road. The JLP would do well, however, to temper its celebrations, because polls are not election kingmakers. And there is no predictive relationship between poll forecasts and how people will cast their votes in an election. Ultimately, it is voters and what they do behind the ballot screens that decide the fate of political parties. Poll findings do, however, serve some important political and social functions. For example, findings help to boost supporters. I previously discussed that I notice that some especially on social media are involved in what I view as a futile process of torturing the findings of the Bluedot poll.

American writer Gregg Easterbrook famously said: “Torture numbers and they’ll confess to anything.” That approach bore much fruit 20 years ago. It will not do so today, since nearly everyone can fact-check anything and everything at the press of a button.

The Bluedot findings do indicate that the JLP now needs to ramp up the connections with especially undecided voters in marginal seats. The undecided voters are the real kingmakers. Those in the JLP who are now sitting on their laurels and counting political eggs before they hatch need to drink a long glass of reality juice, eat a good sized humility sandwich, and top off their meal with a generous serving of gratitude tonic.

The incumbency curse

In order to increase its chances of securing at least two-thirds of the House of Representatives, I believe the JLP needs to approach the election as if it were trailing. That is one of the primary tools of incumbents that find themselves ahead in scientific polls in the run-up to especially national elections in the present global political climate which continues to be unfriendly to them.

Recall that in my
The Agenda piece on January 5, 2025, entitled ‘Deliver or perish’, I noted: “The Pew Research Center, one of the most trusted sources of verifiable data globally, in an insightful piece titled ‘Global Elections in 2024: What we learned in a year of political disruption’, noted among other things: “2024 was a remarkable year for elections, as voters in more than 60 countries went to the polls. It also turned out to be a difficult year for incumbents and traditional political parties. Rattled by rising prices, divided over cultural issues, and angry at the political status quo, voters in many countries sent a message of frustration.” In the mentioned article, I also said, “Those who believe that being entrusted with the privilege of elected and/or selected office makes them kings of the hill should also put this reality in their pipes and smoke it. Every one of the 60 incumbents mentioned went backwards.”

The incumbency curse which mangled the Western liberal democratic global political arena in 2024 has not been exorcised. Recently, for example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was booted from office. Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats suffered their worst post-war result. The Associated Press (AP), on February 23, 2025, noted that: “The Opposition conservatives led by Friedrich Merz won a lackluster victory in Germany’s election Sunday and Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its support in the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II, projections showed.” The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), ended-up second. Britannica says Alternative for Germany (AfD), is a “far right-wing German political party founded in 2013. Established during the rise of Euroskepticism in the wake of the euro-zone debt crisis, the party has since adopted a platform based on German nationalism and Islamophobia.”

The resurgence of a party like the (AfD) in Germany needs to be a light bulb moment for Europe, and indeed the rest of the world, given the atrocities which were committed from 1933 to 1945 under Adolf Hitler’s National Socialist German Workers’ Party (Nazi Party). Negative populists and parties, whether far-right or far-left, are the engines of the incumbency curse globally. Some will doubtless accuse me of being alarmist. They can choose to be like the proverbial ostrich if they want. But foolish and/or convenient denials will not change the fact that political, social, and economic gravity exist.

The fact is, negative populism is rapidly gaining support, especially among males, in many countries in Europe; significant parts of South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina; some sections of Africa, in the United States of America — think Donald Trump — the United Kingdom, and Canada.

“Why do all these happenings matter to me here in Jamaica,” some may ask. America, Britain and Canada are our major trading partners. Hundreds of the tourists who visit Jamaica are from Europe. Tourism is our #1 foreign exchange earner. It bears repeating that we in Jamaica are not immune to the poisonous tentacles of negative populism. Global happenings should serve as warnings to us.

Well-thinking Jamaicans must not ignore the caustic embrace and spread of fake news by some in our midst who are seeking political office. Neither should we fail to observe that some who are seeking the highest elected offices in the land are yet to put forward any plans which can be operationalised and/or funded in a timely manner. They tell us they have the solutions to all our, especially long-standing and complex problems like crime, in particulate our abnormal murder rate, underachievement in education, inadequate housing, and the Herculean problem of informal settlements across the country which are occupied by some 650,000 Jamaicans. Magic wand solutions are the young trees of negative populism. Beware!

Can we trust Mark Golding’s brand of accountability, transparency, and integrity? I think not! The truth is Golding can shout the words accountability, transparency and integrity until he is blue in the face, what is crucial are his actions. Actions speak louder than words, as we say in local parlance.

Beware of gimmicks politics! Negative populists are adept at wholesaling distortions. Recall that when Golding was in Portland introducing Isat Buchanan as the party’s standard-bearer for the Portland Eastern constituency, Golding described Buchanan, who has served time in prison for drug-related crimes as “a righteous yute”. Golding then poured high praises on Buchanan for helping dancehall artiste Vybz Kartel “to come ah road”. This is all gimmicks. We must not be fooled. Pay attention to the fact that, in Golding’s entire presentation, he did not discuss a single, solitary fundable programme which he would implement to make the lives of Portlanders better, socially and economically, given that he is the prime minister-in-waiting.

Golding speaks from all sides of his mouth. I don’t believe he can be trusted to manage the affairs of Jamaica, especially when the global economy according to some financial experts is heading for extremely rough waters. Our best bet at this time is to stay with tested and experienced managers.

Crooked and unenlightened protectionists, deceitful populist disciples, double-dealing nationalists are all rapidly gaining political ascendency globally. They come in different colours, shapes, sizes, and sexes. Many are severely hostile to Western-style liberal democracy. Well-thinking Jamaicans need to “look out ah dem two yeye” (be extremely vigilant). And, the JLP needs to win big to keep the negative populists at bay.

Garfield Higgins

Garfield Higgins is an educator, and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.