The play-offs for the 2024/25 National Basketball Association (NBA) season are about six weeks away and by and far, the leaders in both the Eastern and Western Conferences have been the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, respectively. They have led all year in their respective conferences and will seemingly wrap up the No 1 seeding heading into the postseason, in the next few weeks, but what are the ramifications, historically.

The value of the first seed lies in home-court advantage throughout the play-offs, as long as the team survives the round. However, finishing atop the regular season in any conference is not usually a blessing, particularly in the East, and looking back at the results over the past 25 seasons, Cleveland and Oklahoma City may be having more than a cursory glance at their overall records.

In NBA history, 90 teams that qualified for the play-offs as the top seeds reached the finals, which includes 27 times where both finalists were the respective No 1 seeds of that season, and a total of 63 finals have had at least one No 1 seed contesting. Of the 90 teams, 52 won the title (57.8 per cent), while the other 38 lost the finals.

Over the last 25 years, only three times did the two number one seeds meet in the finals and therefore, the possibility of the Cavaliers and Thunder clashing in this year’s championship game is slim, that is, if they both top the tables. The No 1 seed in the East has only made the finals seven times since 2000, winning four of the seven, including the Boston Celtics winning last season. The last time a No 1 seed in the Eastern Conference made the finals and did not win it was the 2001/02 New Jersey Nets, who lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the championship game. In contrast, the No 1 seed in the West has made the finals 12 times since the turn of the century, winning eight, including the Denver Nuggets in 2023, and the last to lose were the Golden State Warriors, in 2019, to the Toronto Raptors.

In this first of a two-part exposé, the West-leading Thunder will take centre stage for their commanding lead in the conference and overall dominance in the league. The Western Conference has proven again to be the deeper, and more consistent conference. And as deep as the West is, one team has stood far above the rest, from the first jump of the season. Oklahoma City has established and maintained a large lead in the West with the NBA’s best-rated defence, their league-leading turnover rate, and a top three offense, led by the league’s scoring leader Shaivonte (Shai) Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), averaging over 32 points per game.

Formerly the Seattle Supersonics, before changing ownership and moving to Oklahoma City in 2008, the Thunder boasts the league’s youngest (24.15 years on opening day) and most inexperienced (2.5 average seasons) team, with most of their roster no older than 26 years of age, the only exceptions being Alex Caruso and Kenrich Williams, both 30. They are on track to finish the year with a franchise-best 66 wins and the top seed in the Western Conference, much better than they ever did when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were in the team.

Since Head Coach Mark Daigneault was hired in 2020, Oklahoma City has increased its win total every year, starting from 22, then to 24, then to 40, then to 57 last season (No 1 seed in the West), and is on pace for a franchise-best this year. Canadian-born, 26-year-old SGA is a bona fide Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate this year, and the addition of players such as small forward Jalen Williams, centres Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein and guards Cason Wallace and Caruso around him has resulted in one of the toughest, most rounded teams in the NBA. With a sound defence and an ever-improving offence, the Thunder are the clear favourites to win the Western Conference and head into the postseason with the target clearly positioned on their back.

The recent trade activity by western opponents, particularly for the Lakers and Warriors, along with the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies, appear to pose the biggest threats for the Thunder going all the way to the final game. However, the Thunder are 5-3 so far this season against these opponents and are more than capable of finding ways to win. That said, the recent enhancements by the Lakers and Warriors cannot be ignored.

It’s hard to believe that LeBron James, at 40 years old, was named the Western Conference Player-of-the-Month for February and is still playing an elite brand of basketball that only a few can replicate. The Lakers, with the addition of Luka Doncic last month, have been completely transformed into a contender, rapidly improving from seventh in the table to sit second behind the Thunder. The LeBron-Luka combination is scary, pairing two of the craftiest players in the NBA and forcing head coaches to completely rethink their strategies.

As for the Warriors, they acquired Jimmy Butler just before the trade deadline in February and quickly moved from Play-In hopeful to play-off contender in less than a month. Golden State’s concerns heading into 2025 seem like a long-lost memory and Stefan Curry has caught fire since Butler’s inclusion, finding more space to launch impossible shots from beyond the arc. Sadly, for Oklahoma City, they are another hurdle for concern in their remarkable path.

The Thunder have two games this weekend, against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight in Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, which they are expected to win, but have a genuine challenge on their hands when the Nuggets visit on Sunday afternoon. They have split the two meetings so far this season, with the Thunder having an overwhelming 102-87 win in October and Denver squeezing out a 124-122 win in November, but this is the business end of the season and these teams are in the top three of the West, so they must deliver. This matchup should be a part of the plans this weekend as it promises to be very good.

The feature game this weekend must be the Lakers visiting the Celtics in Boston tomorrow night. The Celtics won the only meeting this season 117-96 in late January, but that was before the blockbuster Doncic trade and the Lakers were struggling to make the Play-In Tournament. This will be a renewal of (arguably) the greatest NBA rivalry, the No 2 in the East versus the No 2 in the West, the defending champion taking on the only other team with 17 titles to their name, and no love will be lost. This is hard to predict but fireworks are guaranteed.

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NBA 2024/25 Champion

Team Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder 2.90

Boston Celtics 2.95

Cleveland Cavaliers 7.00

Los Angeles Lakers 13.00

Denver Nuggets 15.00

Golden State Warriors 20.00

New York Knicks 21.00

Milwaukee Bucks 50.00

Memphis Grizzlies 50.00

LA Clippers 70.00

*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)

Note: Odds are subject to change