The bets are on as to who will win the next general election, emphasis on ‘who’. This is so because both the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) are leader-centric, which means that in the very final analysis what the country will be experiencing, whether we like it or not, is a presidential-type election, with Jamaicans going to the polls to mark their X either in favour of Andrew Michael Holness or Mark Jefferson Golding.

The problem with this scenario is that the ‘why’ and the ‘what’, in terms of the decision-making process, will no doubt take second place as partisan emotions rise high. This, of course, is unfortunate, as an election should be primarily about issues and policies as well as matters relating to good governance. Unfortunately, Jamaica is not a reading society, and most citizens rely on hearsay, “suss”, propaganda, and optics, more so now because we are in the age of social media. In this regard, disinformation and misinformation oftentimes take centre stage in most political discourse.

Needless to say likeability plays a very important role in the body politic, which explains why both parties, over these many decades, have relied heavily on the popularity of their respective leaders. As such, many candidates hang on to the coat-tails of their leaders in order to ensure victory at the polls. The PNP, in particular, have over most election cycles benefited from having charismatic leaders such as Michael Manley and Portia Simpson Miller, while the JLP, on the other hand, with the exception of Alexander Bustamante, have had to rely on the PNP losing popularity with the masses. Indeed, Edward Seaga once remarked that “charisma can’t nyam” after his detractors blamed successive JLP defeats under his leadership on his lack of that populist trait.

Enter “Anju”/”Brogad”, and the JLP’s fortunes eventually took a turn for the better. It is not that Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness has much charisma, but his likeability factor for quite a while augured well for the JLP. Indeed, the once-nerdish political neophyte eventually found his footing and has emerged as a force to be reckoned with on the hustings.

In 2016, the JLP took advantage of a disorganised, disunited PNP and won by a whisker. Then, in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the “green brigade” routed the bastions of the Comrades, then led by a competent and credible Dr Peter Phillips, who had neither enough likeability nor charisma.

After descending into disarray, marked by a bitter feud between Phillips’s One PNP and Peter Bunting Risers, a dark horse (though white in pigmentation) in the persona of Golding emerged after having defeated a befuddled Lisa Hanna. But the PNP saw itself as having a high hurdle to scale, one that seemed almost insurmountable. This had to do with whether Norman Manley’s party could sell a “white man” (who many felt was not Jamaican) to the Jamaican public when politically all he had going for him was that he had a very safe seat.

But once the democratic process prevailed, Comrades, although some were disgruntled and felt hopeless, welcomed Golding to the throne and handed him the sceptre; others were not as supportive.

To his credit, Golding has defied the odds and endeared himself to thousands of Jamaicans, both in the party and the wider society, who now embrace him affectionately as “Markie G”, not “Markie British”, the political outsider, much to the chagrin of the JLP, who believed it had the third term in the bag.

Truth be told, while Anju/Brogad has lost much of his sheen, Markie G has risen to the occasion and is now strutting the stage confidently, declaring ‘Time Come’ for the PNP to return to power with him at the helm. And the polls have become increasingly favourable, not just to him, but to the party, while the JLP remains embroiled in internal power struggles that threaten to dash its dream of an unprecedented third term to pieces. Plus, to make matters worse, squabbles over who should run in certain key constituencies have brought into question the extent to which Holness is really large and in charge of the JLP.

So within all this conundrum and aspects of uncertainty, the potent question is: Who will win the next election? Markie G or Brogad?

In a frenzied quest to secure the prized third term, JLP leader and prime minister, Dr Holness, has been criss-crossing the island on an almost daily basis, cutting ribbons, digging up soil, turning on taps, and dishing out a plethora of goodies while pontificating from sundry platforms, desperately seeking to woo a seemingly sceptical electorate. Yes, he has many achievements, mostly at the macro level, to boast about. But one senses that the euphoria that emanated from last year’s annual conference when confidence reigned high has waned somewhat and this has led to some hesitancy with respect to when he should fly the gate.

In the meantime, the PNP, having sensed this vacillation and buoyed by the impressive popular vote it was blessed with in the last local government election, has been urging the prime minister to “call it, Anju, call it”. However, timing is the art of politics, and the JLP leader does have the upper hand in terms of reading the tea leaves and knowing when is the most opportune moment to ring the bell.

In terms of organisation and being battle-ready, the PNP is clearly ahead, and Golding has one major feather in his cap, and that is he has no baggage — no “black scandal bag” haunting him, while, on the other hand, Holness does have an Achilles heel with respect to the unfinished business with the Integrity Commission. This albatross around his neck may well weigh him down to the point that he loses much favour with many well-thinking Jamaicans who are still left in the dark about allegations that he has much “unexplained wealth”.

Against this backdrop, Golding almost comes across as “squeaky clean” in comparison, which is perhaps what has given the PNP president the momentum as he sings, “When the right time come, man a go charge with corruption.”

When all is said and done, politics is the art of the possible, so, as it stands at this point, to any discerning observer, the election result is still too close to call. Suffice it to say that contrary to what was once perceived to be a walk in the park for Dr Holness will now be a battle royal, a constituency-by-constituency, hand-to-hand combat to the finish line.

May the best man win!

Lloyd B Smith has been involved full-time in Jamaican media for the past 49 years. He has also served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is popularly known as the Governor. Send comments
to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.

Mark Golding (Garfield Robinson)

Lloyd B Smith