FOR years the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) has struggled to identify the reasons behind the almost annual spike in murders in May.

“It should be noted historically that this month has traditionally been the highest on a regular basis,” Minister of National Security Dr Horace Chang pointed out during a special post-Cabinet media briefing at Jamaica House on Thursday. In fact, it gave the police force many hours of planning and thinking as to what is the cause of it because May turned up every year with over 100 murders.”

On Friday Jamaica Observer sources with security background also struggled to determine what caused the annual spike as they pointed to possible causes, including the annual conference of the Jamaica Police Federation which is usually held outside of Corporate Area, and the absence of any major entertainment or sporting events during the month.

In 2021, 105 murders were recorded in May before jumping to 135 for the same month in 2022. Then, in 2023, a total of 133 murders were recorded in the month on May.

But the trend has broken this year with Chang pointing to an almost 70 per cent decline in murders so far in May when compared to the same period in 2024.

“In fact, last year it was 134 [murders] and we are now at 42 — and with two days to go [in the month] we will come in below 50,” declared Chang at the Thursday afternoon media briefing.

“I say that with confidence because sometimes there are talks by others that we should not celebrate or take credit for this activity [but] this Government, led by Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness, decidedly invested in security,” Chang argued after pointing to the overall major crime figures so far this year.

He said that as at Thursday there was a 43.3 per cent decrease in murders, compared to the same period (January 1 to May 29) last year.

“That means that we have a reduction of 210 murders compared to the same period last year. This would be the lowest rate of homicides in the island since 1991,” said Chang as he noted that major crimes are down by 19.3 per cent so far this year.

“The projected murder rate for this year, if we continue as we are, would be 24 per 100,000, which would be the lowest since 1991.

“The first quarter of 2025 had the lowest [murder number] ever recorded since the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) began keeping disaggregated data in 2001. Only 188 murders were recorded in Q1, and if it continues Q2 could be lower,” Chang said.

“So far, with the month [almost] completed [in the second quarter of 2025], only 87 murders have been recorded. With just one month remaining in the quarter, Q2 could end at an even lower rate than Q1,” declared Chang.

He was supported at the media briefing by the prime minister who argued that the steady decline in murders and other major crimes has not been by chance but a result of targeted action by his Administration.

“It is the result of strategic and unprecedented investment in national security. Since 2016 this Administration has invested $87 billion in security. [This is] more than three times what was invested by previous Administrations before 2016,” said Holness.

“So, we are investing about $9 billion per year in security. This shows our intent. It is not just talking about security, it’s just not praying about security, it is actually doing the work. It is making the effort and making the allocations for security — and that is yielding great results,” added Holness.

Minister of National Security Dr Horace Chang speaking during a special post-Cabinet briefing at Jamaica House on Thursday. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)