WITH both major political parties now in election mode, a political scientist and two expert analysts have agreed on four constituencies among those that hold the keys to State power when Jamaicans are called to vote this year.

Damion Gordon, an assistant lecturer in political leadership and strategy at The University of the West Indies (The UWI), Mona; Dr Christopher Charles, professor of political and social psychology in the Department of Government at The UWI; and veteran journalist, newspaper publisher and political analyst Lloyd B Smith have all identified St Elizabeth South Western, St Mary Western, St James West Central, and St Andrew East Rural among the constituencies to be closely watched when the votes are being counted.

Gordon said his perspective is based on an analysis of election data and recent polling results.

In the meantime, Dr Charles, also using data from the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ), created a formula that calculates the base rate and vote lead for each general election from 1962 to 2020, which informs his selections, while political commentator Smith has based his picks on feedback he has been receiving.

A graphic showing the constituencies that have been listed by political scientists and commentator as the ones to watch this election season when Jamaicans head to the polls. They include St Elizabeth South Western, St James West Central, St Mary Western, and St Andrew East Rural.

In an interview with the Jamaica Observer, Gordon said since 1962 the weathervane seats of St Elizabeth South Western, currently held by the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Floyd Green, and St Mary Western, whose Member of Parliament (MP) is the JLP’s Robert Montague, have always predicted the winner of the general election.

Weathervane seats are ones which are always won by the party elected to form the Government.

“I’m not sure if there’s any scientific explanation [for] why these seats operate in this manner. I don’t know what it is about these seats that make them reflect the mood of the national electorate, but heading into the election, obviously, the two political parties are conscious of this historical fact, and they will be making an attempt to win these two seats,” said Gordon.

Political analyst Damion Gordon noted that the People’s National Party (PNP) would have lost several constituencies to the Jamaica Labour Party in 2020. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

He added that on election night, “we will be paying attention to see how these seats trend, because the trend of these seats on election night will, to a great extent, provide us with a clue about how the election is going in terms of which of the two political parties is likely to win”.

Smith, who agreed that these two seats are to be watched, said that while he has not been able to get much data from St Elizabeth, he’s predicting there could be major upsets in what is dubbed the breadbasket parish of Jamaica.

“The feedback I’m getting is that there is some amount of disaffection in the Jamaica Labour Party camp. The People’s National Party (PNP), on the other hand, seems to be very energised and up and running, so it’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out,” said Smith, a former PNP Member of Parliament for St James Central and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives.

“One would expect Floyd Green, for example, to hold on to his seat, but there is talk that he is having some fire being put under his tail there. But, let’s wait and see what happens,” Smith told the Sunday Observer.

SMITH…the feedback I’m getting is that there is some amount of disaffection in the Jamaica Labour Party camp.

He added that the situation is similar in St Mary Western, with rumblings that Robert Montague is losing ground in the constituency.

Dr Charles agreed that the two constituencies should be looked at closely, because history shows they have swayed from one party to the next.

He explained that, in his formula, the base rate shows how often one party has won a seat since 1962, based on the number of elections they contested.

There have been 14 general elections since 1962 and Dr Charles said his information is mostly based on 13 of those elections, because the snap election of 1983 — that was contested by the JLP and some independent candidates as the PNP had boycotted it — is included in the analysis only a few times when the data was provided.

Dr Charles said only the base rate of the party with more wins was used in calculating the average that informed his picks.

The vote lead, according to Dr Charles, is the difference in vote share between the winner and the loser for each election.

A marginal seat is defined as one which neither party dominates, and in which each has had similar success.

“St Mary Western, the PNP has won eight times and the JLP six. The average base rate of the party with the greater proportion of wins is 57.14 per cent, and the average vote lead is 8.87 per cent,” said Dr Charles.

“St Elizabeth South Western, the PNP has won this seat seven times and the JLP six times. The average base rate of the party with more wins is 53.85 per cent, and the average vote lead is 3.89 per cent,” he shared with the Sunday Observer.

Professor of political and social psychology in the Department of Government at The UWI, Dr Christopher Charles.

Dr Charles noted that the information is mostly accurate and can be used to look at election trends and identify marginal constituencies.

“However, there have been a few times when politicians looking at my data have complained that the data for their constituency are inaccurate. If what the politicians are saying is true, then the EOJ [Electoral Office of Jamaica] must ensure that the election results they publish on their website are 100 per cent accurate,” he noted.

The political scientist and analysts said St James West Central, currently held by the JLP’s Marlene Malahoo Forte, and St Andrew East Rural, held by fellow JLP standard-bearer Juliet Holness, are also seats that should be watched.

Dr Andre Haughton will try his hand again at unseating Malahoo Forte in St James West Central, while Patrick Peterkin has been tapped as the PNP’s caretaker for St Andrew East Rural.

Gordon stated that St Andrew East Rural is a marginal seat, and noted that the winning party typically gets home by 1,000 or fewer votes. According to the EOJ, Holness won the constituency by more than 2,000 votes in 2020. She also won the seat in 2016 by 669 votes.

Data gathered by Dr Charles stated that St Andrew East Rural has been won by the JLP six times and the PNP seven times. The average base rate of the party with more wins is 53.85 per cent, and the average vote lead is 11.69 per cent.

According to Smith, the results of the local government elections show that the PNP is set to do well in the general election in Kingston and St Andrew. However, he noted it will come down to who makes better use of their resources.

“For Juliet Holness’s seat, she has been a really good Member of Parliament, but there was an upset in her constituency in the local government elections. I think the Kintyre Division, which is a very pivotal division in her constituency, was won by the PNP, and so she could be in for a little trouble there,” Smith reasoned.

According to the EOJ website, the Kintyre Division was won by the PNP’s Vivienne Brown-Bond, who received 1,322 votes, as opposed to the JLP’s Kelvin Clarke who received 1,292 in the 2024 Local Government Elections.

In St James West Central, Smith said Malahoo Forte has lost the trust of some of her constituents and could face fierce competition to retain the seat. However, he noted that with a little bit of help the scales could tip in her favour.

According to Dr Charles, data from the EOJ show that both the JLP and the PNP have won the constituency five times. The average base rate is 50 per cent and the average vote lead is 14.16 per cent.

In addition to the four constituencies listed, Gordon said areas that were lost by the PNP in the last election should be closely watched. The PNP lost several constituencies, which it had won in the 2016 election, to the JLP in 2020.

“We wanted to see if those losses were an anomaly, a one-off event, based on the particular characteristics of that election because, as you know, the election occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and that may have been a factor that suppressed voter turnout. We wanted to see if the losses of the PNP, those seats that it traditionally held, were due to that swing, or if the losses were attributed to a more enduring shift in the voting pattern of those constituencies. So that theory will be tested in the upcoming election,” said Gordon.

Other constituencies highlighted by the experts as ones to watch include St Andrew Eastern, Kingston Central, St Elizabeth South Eastern, Manchester Central, Westmoreland Western and Central; St Mary South Eastern, Clarendon North Western, and Trelawny Southern — all of which have Members of Parliament who represent the JLP.