The headlines are hard to ignore. First, it was the Trump Administration’s new trade policies, which have reshaped and, in many cases, strained the relationship between the US and its global trading partners. Now, tensions between Iran and Israel continue to rattle global markets, and Moody’s recent downgrade of the US’s credit rating has added another layer to investor unease. If you’re watching your portfolio, it’s only natural to feel a bit on edge. When geopolitical tensions escalate, it can have ripple effects on oil prices, interest rates, trade flows, and investor sentiment. Countries like Jamaica, which import the vast majority of their fuel and are closely linked to the US economy, often feel the impact in the form of higher electricity, food, and transportation costs. These increases feed into inflation and may push the Bank of Jamaica to raise interest rates to contain it if price pressures are sustained. They could also weigh on key economic sectors if there is a sharp slowdown in the US economy or if they lead to a softening in the demand for Jamaican exports. Add market volatility stemming from US fiscal concerns, and it’s clear that there is a lot of uncertainty. But amid the noise, one truth remains: Smart investing isn’t about reacting because uncertainty doesn’t mean it’s time to panic. It’s about having a strategy and being disciplined about it. In fact, for disciplined investors, periods of uncertainty can open doors to new investment opportunities.

Reacting Based on Fear Has No Place in Smart Investing

Yes, markets may wobble in the short term, but they’ve recovered from worse. Wars, pandemics, and financial meltdowns, history shows us that while the road may get rocky, recovery eventually follows. That’s why reacting emotionally or rushing to sell is often a mistake. Instead, this could be the moment to find opportunities. On the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), there are stocks with strong fundamentals that are trading below their pre-pandemic prices. As at June 26, 2025, the market’s average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 23.3x — well below the 37.3x seen in 2019. That leaves room for long-term upside as corporate earnings continue to improve. In investing, it’s not the loudest who win; it’s those who block out the noise and stick to the plan.

What Could Go Wrong?

Sure, the headwinds being experienced in the market could pressure even well-run companies if conditions deteriorate. But that’s exactly why smart investing focuses on fundamentals. A solid strategy, not market swings, drives performance over time. Consider GraceKennedy at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. While others cut back, Grace continued investing in digital channels and strengthening its food distribution network. It saw its revenues grow 12.0 per cent, and profits surged 38.6 per cent, for the financial year (FY 2020) ended Dec 2020. Additionally, in FY 2021, Lasco Manufacturing recorded a 4.1 per cent increase in revenue and a 40.8 per cent surge in earnings, driven by sustained investments in process and technological enhancements to drive efficiencies, along with strategic collaborations with suppliers and service providers to ensure operational continuity. These performances underscore the importance of strong leadership, solid fundamentals, and thoughtful strategy over short-term fear.

So, What Should You Do in These Times?

Review your portfolio: Take stock of your current holdings. Are you too concentrated in sectors vulnerable to global shocks? If so, rebalancing may be wise. Note, however, that this does not mean you have to sell all your current holdings but rather adjust your exposure. That could involve trimming certain holdings, pausing new investments in those sectors, or gradually adding more resilient or counter-cyclical industries. The goal is to strike a balance that reflects both current risks and your personal investment goals and risk tolerance. To do so effectively, it is best to consult a financial advisor to help assess your portfolio to determine the best approach to rebalancing based on your time horizon and risk appetite.

Find value: There are still strong companies trading at attractive prices, but finding these companies requires more than just looking at historical performance. Start by identifying businesses that are defensive, well-managed, and consistently earn steady profits; these companies are often better equipped to weather uncertainty. Investors should also consider the bigger picture: Evaluate the industry’s long-term growth prospects and consider whether current global events fundamentally alter its growth trajectory. A company with strong past performance is a good start, but resilience also depends on the sustainability of its industry and its ability to adapt. Finally, if cash flow is important to you, prioritise companies with a history of consistent dividend payments.

Have cash on hand: It’s smart to keep some funds in cash or near-cash assets for emergencies or new investment opportunities. Money market funds like the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) 30-day certificate of deposits (CDs) or repurchase agreements (repos) are useful here. These instruments allow you to maintain liquidity without sacrificing the chance to earn modest returns while you wait. Furthermore, maintaining liquidity provides the flexibility to take advantage of investment opportunities as they arise, such as value stocks or other assets trading below their fair value. Periods of market uncertainty often yield undervalued assets at attractive prices, as most investors respond with emotion to the situation. You want to be able to spot them and have the cash on hand to purchase them.

Get Advice

Uncertain times call for clarity, not guesswork. A licensed financial advisor can provide informed guidance to help you develop or refine a strategy tailored to your specific goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

Now That You Have Set the Foundation, Stay Calm, Stay Informed

With so much unfolding globally, it’s easy to get caught up in fear. But markets fluctuate — that’s normal. What matters is sticking to your investment strategy, staying informed, and trusting in the long game. In a world full of headlines and hot takes, remember this: time, not timing, is your greatest asset. Chasing the “perfect” moment often means missing the market’s best days. Instead of reacting to uncertainty, ground your investments in high-quality assets in strong growth industries, spread your risk, and give your portfolio the time it needs to grow. There will always be geopolitical conflicts, which bring instability in financial markets, which can hinder your journey. But with a good investment plan and the right guidance, your financial goals remain within reach, and you can stay the course despite the noise in the market. Don’t act out of mere panic; if you are feeling unsure, talk to us. At NCB Capital Markets Limited, we are here to help you understand your options, stay calm through the noise, and make decisions with confidence. Connect with an NCB Capital Markets advisor at ncbcapinfo@jncb.com or call 876-960-7108. Let’s plan the way forward together.

This article provides general information only, not financial advice. Investing involves risk, including potential loss. Consider your personal situation and consult a licensed advisor before making decisions. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Dr Karrian Hepburn Malcolm, Head — Wealth Management, National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited