As Jamaica’s population continues to decline gradually, concerns are mounting over the country’s ability to sustain key economic and social goals, with one economist warning that the trend could significantly undermine national development objectives.

Speaking in an interview with the Jamaica Observer on Monday, development economist Dr Nelson “Chris” Stokes said the ongoing reduction in the population—driven primarily by a falling birth rate and an ageing demographic, poses critical challenges for Jamaica’s long-term growth prospects.

“A reduction in the birth rate means there will also be fewer people available to participate in productive activities,” Stokes explained.

“An ageing population further compounds the issue, as fewer workers are in place to support a growing number of retirees. This also puts added pressure on our already limited social safety net,” he further said to the Business Observer.

In contrast, he pointed to countries with growing populations, a strong middle class, and higher levels of productivity being among those having more robust economic expansion.

“Jamaica’s current position is especially worrying. With a replacement birth rate of just 1.3 per cent, the population is shrinking at a time when productivity needs to increase. This demographic trajectory will continue to exert pressure on the country’s ability to sustain growth,” Stokes noted. A replacement birth rate of 2.1 children per woman is widely recognized as necessary to keep a country’s population steady, while a fertility rate below this threshold—called sub-replacement fertility—can cause population decline unless offset by immigration.

Stokes further said that the labour market is already showing signs of demographic strain. In the wake of record-low unemployment rates, several local industries have already been calling for the importation of labour to fill workforce gaps—an approach Stokes believes highlights Jamaica’s deepening demographic challenges.

“If we don’t address these demographic shifts, we’ll simply have fewer people to work and produce, which will ultimately limit our economic potential,” he said.

Jamaica’s population, hovering just below three million for decades, has in the last few years continued to witness a steady decline. Like many of its global counterparts, the country, now experiencing the later stages of its demographic transition, sees much of its growth being negatively impacted by low fertility and mortality rates.

According to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) in its latest Economic and Social Survey Jamaica (ESSJ), the country’s population declined by 0.1 per cent in 2024, bringing the estimated total to 2,700,400. Of that number, males accounted for 1,336,700 (49.5 per cent), and females 1,363,700 or approximately 50.5 per cent.

The report further noting an age dependency ratio (which measures the number of dependents per 100 working-age persons) of 46.4, further said that while this indicated a relatively balanced demographic structure — trends such as declining child populations (ages 0–14), net migration losses, and sub-replacement fertility rates continue to reshape the country’s overall population structure.

“Migration continued to be one of the main factors shaping Jamaica’s population growth and structure as net migration stood at -8,800, highlighting Jamaica as a net migrant-sending country. The US, Canada and the United Kingdom remained the main destinations for Jamaican migrants,” the report also noted.

As the country awaits the final results of the 2022 Population and Housing Census, currently being compiled by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) following more than two years of delay, Stokes said he is expecting to see a further dwindling of the numbers.

“We’re already on that course, so when the official numbers are released, the decline whether at 0.1 per cent or even 0.5 per cent or above will carry some implication as we move to become a smaller population when compared to where we were 10 years ago, to where we are today, and where we will be ten years from now,” he stated.

The development economist calling for a smart growth strategy to address current population woes said this will require significant levels of education and training.

“It’s not a case that we just want bodies, but ones that are productive, well-educated, and will be able to help with securing growth for the country. To address this, we therefore need to train people better so that they can be able to take up better paid positions,” Stokes said

“A population that lacks adequate training and education will ultimately become a drag on our growth targets and key development plans such as Vision 2030,” he added.

STOKES…Jamaica’s current position is especially worrying. With a replacement birth rate of just 1.3 per cent, the population is shrinking at a time when productivity needs to increase.