Dear Editor,

A decade ago Jamaica’s economy was groaning under a debt burden of nearly 150 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Today, that mountain has been cut in half, inflation sits neatly in the Bank of Jamaica’s 4-6 per cent range, foreign reserves are at record highs, and unemployment is at an all-time low. By every measure, Jamaica is experiencing its best financial health in generations.

But with the general election set for September 3, 2025, the political parties are rolling out promises that could test just how strong that recovery really is.

Addressing a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) mass rally and election manifesto launch in Sam Sharpe Square, St James, on Sunday, August 24, 2025, Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness told supporters that if the JLP secures a third term, seniors will get a major break: “For seniors aged 65 and over, we will exempt all employment and pension earnings from income tax where total income from all sources is $6 million or less per year, because we are honouring our seniors who have built Jamaica.” (Jamaica Observer, August 25, 2025)

That pledge comes on top of the JLP’s plan to gradually cut the personal income tax rate to 15 per cent from the current 25 per cent, a dramatic shift that would leave more money in the pockets of working Jamaicans. But generosity costs.

The idea is attractive, especially for seniors on fixed incomes and workers squeezed by high living costs. But fiscal analysts warn that Jamaica’s ability to afford these breaks depends entirely on whether the Government can balance them with equally strong revenue measures.

Already, finance ministry documents show that just raising the tax-free threshold from $1.7 million to $2 million by 2027/2028 will cost nearly $14 billion over three years, removing close to 29,000 people from the tax roll. Adding a broad senior exemption up to $6 million — plus a lower income tax rate — could run into tens of billions of dollars annually.

“Any permanent revenue loss has to be offset,” says one International Monetary Fund (IMF) report released in June 2025. “Without that, Jamaica risks flattening or reversing its debt trajectory.”

Since 2013, Jamaica has been under one of the toughest fiscal regimes in the world, forced by crisis into running primary surpluses of 5-7 per cent of GDP. That discipline has paid off. By 2024, debt had fallen to 73 per cent of GDP, with a legally mandated target of 60 per cent by 2027/2028.

The IMF’s Article IV review praises Jamaica’s turnaround but stresses that climate shocks, infrastructure costs, and pension pressures already pose risks. Adding unfinanced tax cuts would make the climb even steeper.

The takeaway is not that tax cuts are impossible. Economists agree Jamaica could afford targeted relief — if it is phased in slowly, tightly targeted, and matched by new revenues or spending cuts elsewhere.

But there is no free lunch. Without offsets, the very progress that makes today’s promises possible could be undone, leaving Jamaica with rising debt, tighter budgets, and eventually, painful corrections.

For voters, the question is whether the parties will explain not just the gifts but also how they plan to pay for them.

Dudley McLean II

Mandeville, Manchester

dm15094@gmail.com