On this side of the Atlantic the signs are becoming abundantly clearer: The exploitation of horse racing as a commercial enterprise is facing an existential threat as the downward trajectory in the breeding industry continues. As far as I know there are no concrete plans for new investments being pursued anywhere in North America.

For context, and to advise those who are unaware, the last 35 years have seen nothing short of a disastrous decline of the racing industry in the USA and Canada. In the USA foals of 1990 amounted to 40,333, but the breeding sheds only delivered 16,675 in 2024. Canadian farms bred 3,193 foals in 1990, which was down to 1,000 by 2024. Against this background, with fewer lots available, the price of thoroughbred horses has increased considerably in North America, as demonstrated in the record Saratoga Yearling Sales.

Meanwhile, in Jamaica, under 200 foals have been registered each year of the last eight, well below a peak of over 350 a decade and a half ago. The local horse population is at a very concerning low. Of note, there is a huge number of older horses of questionable soundness, which militates against racing with the expected frequency. On September 28, of the 108 declarations, 63 were five-year-olds and up, and on October 5, 44 of the 78 starters are in this cohort of older horses.

In 1990, there were 70,393 races in the USA, which declined by 60 per cent to 30,852 by the end of 2024, and the Canadian peak of 7,614 races in 1991 stood at 2,697 at the end of 2024. Whilst in hapless Jamaica, with 1021 races in 1992, the calendar has performed over the last five years as follows: 845 in 2021, 855 in 2022, 802 in 2023, and 755 in 2024. With 600 races promoted by October 5 and with 19 race days remaining, it could reach 780 this year.

However, the size of fields to date suggests the lowest ever average of below 10 per race will be surpassed. There can be no question that the claiming racing product lacks quality, with its inevitable huge number of odds-on favourites, as inferior horses concede weight to superior ones. This results in freakishly wide win margins with regularity. By the way, on last Sunday’s card, nine of the 10 races had odds-on choices, and one was at even money.

As far as I am concerned, none of these figures is surprising with the racing product configured and contorted into the flawed claiming system. It was 100 per cent sure to fail in the gaming markets of all jurisdictions generally, and in Jamaica particularly. Truth be told, a claiming system is so complicated that even the very names of the races and the conditions of entry create confusion. As a career marketer, it was easy for me to predict the abject failure of the claiming system.

In January 1993, the anti-handicapping and anti-bookmaking conspiracy theorists, against the advice of people with the requisite knowledge, convinced the then-Jamaica Racing Commission Board that a handicap system, delivering growth to the racing product at an average of 10 cent per annually for thirty-two years, lacked integrity.

Further and idiotically, these conspiracists changed the profile of a prestigious hobby of owning racehorses. This, into one where it was thought, hustling with thoroughbreds in the Jamaican claiming system could be an economically viable commercial activity. Because it was an illusion, the expected profitability has not materialized in the over 32 years of the existence of claiming, much to the painful financial frustration of more than a few big spenders over the period.

The consistent annual decline in the cohort of investors/owners, the inadequate investment in the breeding industry, as well as the failure of the racing product to grow in the gaming market,constitute a date-predictable existential threat to the local horse racing industry. It defies rational belief that the stakeholders remain so steadfast in the view that the claiming system racing product is economically viable. The requisite action to restructure this racing product can no longer be delayed in Jamaica. No rational basis for its continued existence can be advanced.

The US Jockey Club has recognized that a proper classification of the horse population is essential and has therefore established a method of class rating to improve field size. Still, there is no admission from the surviving architects of claiming in Jamaica that the counterproductive division of the local population into 25 categories, reducing the average field size, was a fundamental error, which is now over 32 years old.

Next, this column will analyse the 2016 Divestment Agreement and the business model of the promoting company, Supreme Ventures Racing & Entertainment Limited (SVREL), with its viability being sustained by the simulcast revenue stream. Be reminded that the previous promoter, Caymanas Track Limited, needed a US$40-million Government subsidy to remain operational. SVREL, working with more and more races with odds-on favourites lacking in betting competitiveness, released the financial Statement of December 31, 2024, showing a$385.35-million loss.