As an economist with a front-row seat to Jamaica’s fiscal dramas I’ve long charted the highs of our gross domestic product (GDP) surges and the lows of debt restructurings. But nothing unnerves me quite like this undercurrent of hunger — a stealthy saboteur that defies our 2.5 per cent growth projections for 2025 and mocks the sheen of our tourism rebound.

The numbers, stark as they are, tell only half the tale. The human ledger — the lost productivity and the stunted dreams — reveals the true cost. In this piece we peel back the layers of this quiet epidemic, dissecting its roots in inflation’s vise and climate’s caprice, weighing its drag on our economy and charting a path forward, bolstered by recent government strides, before the shadows lengthen further.

Jamaica’s food insecurity isn’t a sudden storm; it’s a gathering fog, thickening since the pandemic’s gales. The latest Caribbean Food Security and Livelihoods Survey, released in July 2025 by the World Food Programme and partners, reveals troubling stagnation: Approximately 42 per cent of the population in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean — mirroring Jamaica’s trend with its substantial survey sample of 352 respondents — endured moderate or severe food insecurity in June 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels and higher than the 30-37 per cent recorded in the 2020-2022 rounds.

This plateau follows a brief rebound, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities in a nation where historical data from 2021-2023 already showed 55.1 per cent grappling with moderate to severe forms, including 22.1 per cent in the severest categories.

Household hunger echoes this inertia. In the June 2025 survey round, 30 per cent of respondents across the region, including Jamaicans, reported skipping meals or eating less than usual in the preceding week — a figure stable from 2024, but a stark rise from 17 per cent in 2021.

Qualitative insights from Jamaican participants amplified the strain. Respondents cited post-hurricane financial barriers and soaring costs, with one noting challenges in adapting to “high costs” after crop losses. These aren’t anomalies; they’re the norm amid broader livelihood shocks, whereby 38 per cent of Jamaican respondents reported job losses or income reductions in the prior six months — above the regional 34 per cent average.

Inflation remains the chief culprit. Jamaica recorded the Caribbean’s highest food price increase at 7.4 per cent year-on-year in January 2025, outpacing general inflation at 9.9 per cent and eroding purchasing power for imported staples like rice and flour, which comprise 80-90 per cent of our supply.

Over 94 per cent of regional respondents, including Jamaicans, flagged higher food, fuel, and transport costs in the preceding quarter, driving 79 per cent to opt for cheaper alternatives or smaller portions. For low-income households — disproportionately rural and female-headed — the equation is unforgiving, with vulnerabilities amplified by climate’s whip.

Layer on environmental lashes: 23 per cent of Jamaican households reported impacts from natural hazards in the 12 months prior to the June survey — the highest rate among sampled countries — primarily hurricanes and tropical storms like Beryl in 2024, which ravaged crops and livestock for 17 per cent regionally. Among those affected, 47 per cent faced moderate livelihood hits and 14 per cent severe ones, with ongoing effects like input cost spikes (73-81 per cent for fertilisers and seeds) hobbling recovery.

The toll on youth is acute. While Jamaica is “on course” for global wasting targets, 3.2 per cent of children under five remain affected — above Latin American and Caribbean averages — fuelling long-term health and productivity gaps.

Economists like me thrive on multipliers — the ripple effects of a policy or shock. Food insecurity’s multiplier is insidious, siphoning billions from Jamaica’s coffers in ways that dwarf our headline fiscal wins. But Jamaica’s Government has stepped up with targeted interventions, signalling a shift from rhetoric to resolve amid this stagnation.

In July 2025 Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness unveiled a National Plan for Food Security, a decade-long blueprint for self-sufficiency that tackles infrastructure deficits head-on. Key pillars include expanding irrigation via the Pedro Plains project to cover all irrigable lands, investing in post-harvest facilities and agricultural special economic zones (starting in Parnassus) for integrated value chains, and issuing nearly 1,000 land titles to secure farmer financing — 200 distributed immediately under the plan, alongside new farm roads.

This entrepreneurial pivot aims to transform subsistence farming into sustainable businesses, drawing inspiration from regional successes like Guyana’s produce surge.

Complementing this is the channelling of funds over six years into revitalising the Bodles Agricultural Research Station as a tropical excellence hub.

For the most vulnerable — our children — the Cabinet approved the National School Nutrition Policy in May 2025, expanding the feeding programme to over 500,000 students, while ongoing stalwarts, like the Programme of Advancement Through Health and Education (PATH), deliver cash transfers to low-income families.

Jamaica’s food insecurity isn’t destiny; it’s a detour we can reroute. By confronting this shadow we reclaim our narrative from paradise lost to paradise provisioned.

The plate is set; will we fill it for all?

Janiel McEwan is an economic consultant and analyst. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or janielmcewan17@gmail.com.

Janiel McEwan