JAMAICA’S shrinking fertility rate, sustained migration losses and rapidly ageing population are creating both a demographic crisis and a new frontier for economic growth.

An expert is now urging the country to build on the “purple” and “silver” economies as Jamaica’s demographic trajectory is narrowing the country’s development window. “Jamaica has about 15 years to act, to use that window of opportunity,” said international population specialist Dr José Miguel Guzmán.

Speaking at the Planning Institute of Jamaica’s (PIOJ) Dialogue for Development Distinguished Lecture on Thursday, Guzmán cited data from the United Nations and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) which revealed that Jamaica’s population structure is shifting toward older age groups, with a rising share of persons aged 65 and over and a declining proportion of children. He noted that nearly 60 per cent of tertiary-educated Jamaicans live abroad, and roughly 500 specialist nurses emigrate annually. Combined with fertility decline and life expectancy stalled around 71 to 72 years, these trends are producing what he described as a “perfect storm” of demographic contraction. But the same pressures are also creating demand for new industries centred on ageing, care and longevity. Guzmán argued that Jamaica must integrate two major transitions, care systems and longevity, by developing a formal care economy, the purple economy, alongside a market-driven ageing sector, the silver economy. The purple economy focuses on training, employing and professionalising care work, much of which is currently unpaid and invisible, while the silver economy encompasses products and services for older populations.

“Unpaid care work alone is valued at between 15 and 45 per cent of GDP,” he revealed.

He added that formalising the sector could expand labour participation while improving social protection. The silver economy, he noted, spans age-friendly housing retrofits, telehealth and assistive technologies, wellness and medical tourism, retirement-focused financial services and insurance products tailored to longevity risks.

“Ageing can be considered a market opportunity,” Guzmán said. “Particularly as baby boomers globally hold more wealth and are living longer than previous generations.”

According to Guzmán, Jamaica can slow the economic effects of ageing by investing across the life course, from maternal health to elder care, to keep people healthy and productive for longer.

“If Jamaica aligns adaptation to demographic transition and climate-driven vulnerability, it can strengthen national adaptation and advance a resilient and inclusive development path,” he noted.

Guzmán also pointed to the need to address Jamaica’s persistently low fertility rates, noting that efforts to stabilise population decline must focus on reducing the economic and social barriers to having children. Policy priorities include expanding affordable childcare, promoting family-friendly workplaces, improving access to housing, and strengthening pregnancy and childbirth experiences in public health facilities. Targeted support for low- and middle-income families is also critical to making work and family life more compatible, he said. While reversing fertility decline will take time, he emphasised that action in these areas is necessary to slow the contraction of Jamaica’s youngest population cohort and support long-term labour force sustainability.

International population specialist Dr José Miguel Guzmán gave a presentation at the Planning Institute of Jamaica’s (PIOJ) Dialogue for Development Distinguished Lecture.