BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) Tuesday said economic growth is expected to remain “modest” among the countries of the region this year.

CDB’s Acting Deputy Director of the Economics Department, Jason Cotton, told the bank’s annual news conference that, excluding Guyana, regional gross domestic product is forecasted to grow by 1.1 per cent.

He said Guyana is expected to expand by over 20 per cent, lifting regional growth to 6.2 per cent when included.

He told the news conference that among other commodity exporters, prospects remain mixed, with growth outcomes closely tied to commodity price trends and production dynamics.

Service-exporting economies are anticipated to record modest growth, largely hinging on tourism and construction. Inflation dynamics in 2026 will be shaped by developments in global commodity markets.

Cotton said that on the fiscal front, some countries will continue consolidating and strengthening revenue administration.

“However, pressures from post-disaster recovery, rising wage costs and declining citizenship by investment revenues persist. In several cases, these pressures have led to deviations from medium-term debt reduction paths and require fiscal adjustment to realign with established debt targets and preserve sustainability,” Cotton noted.

But he said that risk remains on the downside.

“Global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions both globally and within the Caribbean basin, and climate-related shocks continue to cloud the outlook.  Fiscal risk also remains pronounced, particularly in highly indebted countries with limited buffers,” he added.

At the same time, Cotton said stronger-than-expected tourism outturns accelerated investment, progress on the renewable energy transition and accelerated reforms to the business environment could improve medium-term prospects.

The CDB official said that in the Caribbean’s recent history, one external shock has followed another, each one underscoring how exposed small open economies remain. He said this year, beyond the shocks themselves, uncertainty has become more deeply entrenched.

“This reality makes regional cooperation not just desirable, but absolutely essential. In a more uncertain and fragmented world, vulnerability is magnified when countries act alone, but together, we are more resilient.

“It is equally important to emphasise that we are not without agency,” Cotton said, noting that external conditions matter, but they do not fully determine outcomes.